Аналитики предсказывают затишье на рынке криптовалют до весны 2026 года Translation: Analysts predict a lull in the cryptocurrency market until spring 2026.

The recent reduction in the key interest rate by the Federal Reserve will not provide sufficient momentum for an immediate surge in the cryptocurrency market. Analysts have cautioned that the regulator’s cautious stance might push back the probability of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high at least until spring, as discussed in conversations with The Block.

On December 11, the value of Bitcoin fell back to $90,000, despite peaking at $94,500 after the Fed’s meeting. Ethereum also dipped below $3,200. The market seems to be following a familiar trend, with prices dropping after seven out of the last eight meetings of the American regulatory body.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the interest rate as being in «neutral territory» but emphasized that future decisions will depend on incoming data. There appears to be a divide within the committee: the decision was made by a vote of nine to three, marking the highest number of dissenting opinions since 2018.

Paul Howard from Wincent remarked that the extent of the rate reduction and mixed signals from the committee are «insufficient for new highs before Easter 2026.» Coin Bureau co-founder Nick Pakrin highlighted that the current situation adds uncertainty and diminishes hopes for the traditional «Santa Claus rally.»

Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve announced the purchase of $40 billion in treasury bills to maintain liquidity. Matt Howells-Barbee, head of growth at Kraken, believes this could support the crypto market at the start of 2026. However, he warned of risks associated with potential policy tightening due to changes in the voting members of the Fed.

Senior market strategist at Creative Planning, Charlie Bilello, pointed out the paradoxical nature of the current cycle. He noted that stocks, real estate, gold, the money supply, and U.S. government debt are at historical highs, while inflation remains at 4%—twice the targeted level. Despite this, the regulator continues its easing measures.

“Liquidity wins today, but sustainability will be called into question tomorrow. This is an environment where markets celebrate in the short term, but macroeconomic contradictions remain,” Bilello emphasized.

Amid the correction, some analysts view this as an opportune moment to enter the market. Crypto researcher Quentin François stated that “extreme levels of overselling represent extreme opportunities.” His assertion is supported by data showing net investments of $224 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, characterized the situation as a «hawkish cut.» According to him, institutional investors keep buying dips: since December 1, large wallets have accumulated over 42,500 BTC. Retail selling is primarily putting pressure on prices.

Lastly, Saad Ahmed, head of the Asia-Pacific division of the Gemini exchange, mentioned that the cryptocurrency market lacks the volatility necessary for a full-fledged altcoin season to commence.