Аналитики уверены: биткоин имеет потенциал для роста до $180 000, несмотря на текущее состояние рынка Translation: Analysts confident: Bitcoin has the potential to rise to $180,000 despite current market conditions

The cryptocurrency market still has a way to go before reaching the overbought zone, indicating there is potential for a continued rally. This perspective was shared by analyst Frank Fetter, referencing the technical indicator Mayer Multiple.

“Bitcoin is hovering near its all-time high (ATH), and the Mayer Multiple is quite low. I like this setup,” he noted.

This metric illustrates the gaps between the 200-day simple moving average (MA) values, helping to identify speculative bubbles and periods of complete seller exhaustion, which signal a long-term upward trend reversal.

When the indicator is above 1, it indicates that Bitcoin’s price is above the 200-day moving average. Conversely, if the indicator falls below 1, the price is below the 200-day MA.

Historically, a Mayer Multiple above 2.4 suggests the presence of a speculative bubble. The metric’s creator and host of the Bitcoin Knowledge podcast, Trace Mayer, believes that investors achieve the best long-term outcomes when the primary accumulation phase of cryptocurrency occurs when the indicator is below 2.4.

At the time of writing, the Mayer Multiple stands at 1.14, while the digital gold trades around $121,360, 3.6% lower than the ATH reached on October 6 (according to CoinGecko).

The chart attached to Fetter’s post highlights the $180,000 level, which corresponds to the speculative threshold of 2.4.

The indicator’s values are significantly lower compared to previous market phases. In the current cycle, its maximum reached 1.84 in March 2024, when Bitcoin was trading around $72,000.

In July, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that values of the Mayer Multiple near 1.1 could be viewed as a kind of «fuel reserve» for a new growth impulse.

Glassnode analysts pointed out that Bitcoin is trading above the acquisition cost for short-term holders (STH).

«The rally remains below the overheating zone (+1 STD). This indicates that strong momentum persists but also that we are approaching short-term risk levels,» the researchers explained.

The firm also observed a «moderate» inclination among investors to take profits amid rising realized gains.

«There are currently no signs of a price peak—unlike in December 2021, when growth began to slow down,» the experts shared their insights.

Many analysts believe that the current correction is more of a pause in growth rather than the onset of a reversal.

«Short-term holders took profits, some leveraged longs were liquidated, but the supply from long-term investors remains intact,» noted Justin d’Anetan, an analyst at Arctic Digital, in a conversation with The Block.

He also mentioned that inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain significant, while coin reserves on exchanges have dropped to a six-year low.

According to Glassnode, institutional demand remains steady despite the “reloading” of leverage in the derivatives markets.

«This indicates that constructive buying is still supporting the market, helping to smooth volatility and stabilize price dynamics,» the experts explained.

Observing d’Anetan, the market is currently under pressure from macroeconomic factors: a strengthening dollar, persistently high yields, and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions.

The U.S. is experiencing a partial government shutdown. Analysts note that such situations traditionally heighten interest in safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has previously expressed mixed sentiments regarding the prospects of monetary policy easing; however, the CME FedWatch tool estimates a 94.6% probability of another cut at the end of the month.

Vincent Liu, director of investments at Kronos Research, noted that market sentiment remains «mixed but resilient»: long-term investors continue to accumulate assets. Thus, the Uptober narrative persists—the market structure is stable despite a cautious correction.

«Historically, Bitcoin has averaged a 22% increase in October, while Ethereum has risen about 5%. This trend fuels the Uptober narrative. […] On-chain data indicates ongoing accumulation and stable positions; however, macroeconomic uncertainty remains a significant element of this equation,» Liu commented.

According to d’Anetan, his forecasts for October remain moderately bullish, although growth may not be as vigorous.

Meanwhile, Presto Research analyst Min Jong expressed the view that the market lacks a dominant narrative.

«For now, traders should pay attention to macroeconomic indicators and policy-related news—they will set the tone for the cryptocurrency market in the near future,» she said.

It is worth recalling that former BitMEX head Arthur Hayes claimed that the traditional four-year cycle of the crypto market has lost relevance. According to him, price movements are now determined by central bank monetary policy rather than historical patterns related to halving events.