Аналитик: Биткоин и S&P 500 вступают в завершающий этап бычьего цикла Translation: Analyst: Bitcoin and S&P 500 Enter the Final Stage of the Bullish Cycle

The first cryptocurrency and the S&P 500 index are now in the «late stage of a bull market,» according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.

His analysis indicates that the market remains in a risk-on mode, with the S&P 500 posting an annual return of +13%.

The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 stands at 0.26, suggesting a weak but positive relationship: the leading cryptocurrency often mirrors the trends of the stock market, although it is not entirely dependent on it.

The analyst emphasized that the S&P 500 is sensitive to macroeconomic and political news; therefore, any cooling in the index could quickly impact Bitcoin’s price.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, the expert believes the focus will shift to corporate earnings. Following two years of growth, the market will evaluate actual performance results.

We are currently in the midst of the third-quarter earnings season. Of the 58 companies that have reported so far, all have exceeded expectations. The anticipated profit growth has risen from 7% to 8%. Adler Jr. noted that this trend is typical for the final stage of a bull run.

In the past 30 days, major holders of Bitcoin have moved assets worth $5.56 billion to the Binance exchange, as reported by CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn.

The expert monitored the metric that tracks transactions exceeding 1,000 BTC. This indicator points to an influx of assets from whales, which could influence the price of digital gold.

A significant spike in this metric occurred on October 21, when Bitcoin worth a total of $1.07 billion flowed into the exchange. The analyst highlighted several large transactions:

Amidst these transfers, Bitcoin’s price increased from $108,000 to $113,000, before correcting back to $108,000.

Glassnode analysts reported a decline in speculative activity in the market. According to their data, recent cryptocurrency buyers are experiencing «financial stress,» indicative of a market cool-off.

Experts reference the metric of unrealized gains and losses among short-term holders. Current values reflect mounting pressure on this group of investors.

Glassnode emphasized that historically, periods of «pain» for speculators have coincided with the formation of healthier market conditions. A reduction in excessive speculation could lead to price stabilization, the specialists concluded.

It’s worth noting that contributors from CryptoQuant at ShayanMarkets reported that the MVRV ratio for Bitcoin has dropped below its 365-day simple moving average, marking a local minimum.