Биткоин-инвесторы снова чувствуют жадность: настроение рынка меняется Translated headline: Bitcoin investors feel greedy again: market sentiment shifts

On January 15, a widely followed market sentiment indicator revealed a state of «greed» for the first time since October, reaching a score of 61 after a prolonged period of «fear» and a series of liquidations amounting to $19 billion.

The day prior, the indicator had settled at a neutral level of 48.

The shift in sentiment coincided with a recovery in the price of Bitcoin, which climbed to $97,704—its highest point in the past two months, according to CoinGecko. The last time Bitcoin surpassed $97,000 was in mid-November, a time when the market was under «extreme fear» due to a sharp decline from historical peaks.

Analysts from Santiment have noted a departure of retail investors from the asset, with a decrease of 47,244 addresses holding a non-zero balance reported over three days.

Experts described this exit as the departure of an «impatient crowd,» and highlighted the drop in exchange supply to a seven-month low of 1.18 million BTC as a bullish signal.

In Santiment’s view, the prevailing pessimism on social media could serve as fuel for a rally towards new all-time highs.

While the Bitcoin price is recovering, user comments are increasingly adopting a «bearish» tone.

Typically, markets trend against the expectations of the crowd. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt metrics have now peaked at their highest in the past ten days.

According to Santiment, this atmosphere of mistrust creates ideal conditions for growth that could bring the price close to $100,000 for the first time since mid-November.

Current growth relies on on-chain metrics rather than speculation, according to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman.

He pointed to the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator, which gauges coin movement activity by weighing it against both volume and inactivity duration. Elevated values indicate the spending of old coins, while low values signify the circulation of recently purchased assets.

In January 2026, the VDD metric fell to 0.53, an historically low level indicating that mainly «young» coins are being moved within the network.

Long-term holders are refraining from taking profits despite rising prices. The market is in a phase of healthy accumulation, with demand outpacing supply without selling pressure from «old» capital.

Aleman emphasized that the current breakout above resistance is founded on the market’s genuine strength. The situation will remain favorable as long as VDD maintains low readings. A sustained increase in this metric would signal the onset of asset sell-offs by long-term investors.

A 31% decline in open interest (OI) in Bitcoin derivatives since October suggests a significant «clearing» of the market from excessive leverage. This may signal a price recovery, according to CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost.

He noted that historically, a reduction in leverage has marked market bottoms. This process «reboots» market structure, laying the groundwork for a potential bullish trend.

The expert added that if Bitcoin continues to decline, OI could drop further, indicating a deeper correction. However, current dynamics suggest a positive scenario.

Typically, price increases amid declining open interest signal either forced or voluntary closures of short positions (short squeeze). Traders betting on a drop realize losses and exit the market, easing selling pressure.

In this case, the rally is driven by genuine spot purchases rather than speculative capital. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has risen by nearly 10%, reaffirming the trend’s resilience.

According to CoinGlass, total open interest across all exchanges currently stands at around $65 billion, which is 28% lower than the peak of early October ($90 billion), aligning with CryptoQuant’s findings.

Optimism also prevails in the options market. At Deribit, the maximum position volume is concentrated at the $100,000 strike price, with traders betting on further growth.

Despite this optimism, the derivatives segment has yet to enter a fully bullish phase, noted Greeks Live.

«The current trading structure resembles a reaction to a sudden price surge; long-term prospects have not yet shifted towards a bull market,» analysts commented.

As a reminder, Glassnode reported that institutions have resumed purchasing Bitcoin amid concerns about explosive volatility.