Биткоин может достичь $112 000 при смягчении политики ФРС, считают эксперты Translation: Bitcoin could reach $112,000 if the Fed eases its policy, experts say

The original cryptocurrency could rise to $112,000 in the coming one to three months. For this to happen, the U.S. Federal Reserve must ease its monetary policy, according to CryptoQuant.

The market is anticipating positive developments not only from a reduction in the key interest rate but also from inflation forecasts and monetary policy easing next year.

To reach the target of $112,000, the leading cryptocurrency must overcome two significant hurdles:

After testing the $99,000 mark, the subsequent price movements will be affected by traders’ profit-taking. If selling pressure remains low, the rally is likely to continue.

CryptoQuant highlighted that the primary driver for Bitcoin’s growth is the reduction in selling activity. Daily influx to exchanges has fallen from 88,000 BTC on November 21 to 21,000 BTC.

The share of deposits from large investors decreased from 47% to 21%, and the average transaction size dropped from 1.1 BTC to 0.7 BTC.

Analysts also consider investors’ capitulation as an additional factor. Since November 13, major holders have realized a net loss of $3.2 billion. Historically, loss realization indicates a depletion of selling pressure and often precedes price increases.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio for Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since October 2023. This observation was made by an analyst with the username Darkfost.

The NUPL metric reflects the difference between market and realized capitalization, providing insight into investor sentiment and the amount of unrealized profits.

Current NUPL stands at 0.39. The expert noted that this level is still higher than measures recorded during past corrections.

Darkfost highlighted this range as critical for two reasons:

The analyst urged caution. However, the actual situation indicates a potential opportunity to enter the market, akin to previous episodes in the current cycle.

“In other words, it’s time to accumulate, not capitulate,” summarized Darkfost.

The current rally in the second-largest cryptocurrency differs from previous price surges this year due to low funding rates. Analyst ShayanMarkets pointed this out.

During former impulses, funding rates reached peak levels, indicating market participants’ euphoria and significant speculative interest. Such overheating typically coincided with the formation of local maxima.

The situation is different now, emphasized ShayanMarkets. Despite the price recovery following the drop to $2,800, funding rates remain low. The derivatives market does not show the same level of leverage activity as before.

The recent growth is fueled by spot accumulation rather than futures speculation. This divergence suggests that Ethereum currently lacks sufficient aggressive demand to initiate a full-blown bullish trend. For a strong rally to resume, an increase in funding rates is necessary to confirm traders’ willingness to engage in the movement.

Currently, the subdued environment reflects a market recovery rather than overheating. This leaves room for further growth, provided demand strengthens.

However, the expert cautioned that without an influx of new volumes, the upward momentum may struggle to break through resistance levels.

Lastly, CryptoQuant reported that derivatives trading volume has reached a historical maximum, making the market «mechanically more fragile.»