Биткоин на грани обрушения: аналитик предсказывает падение на 70% Headline: Bitcoin on the brink of collapse: analyst predicts a 70% drop

The first cryptocurrency could experience a decline of up to 70% during the next bearish market phase, according to Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto.

He stated that historical data indicates a potential correction. In previous cycles, the price of the digital currency plummeted by 94%, 87%, and 77% from its peak.

«I would say a drop of 70% from the absolute maximum Bitcoin may reach is possible. Is it certain to happen? No, but historical lessons suggest we should consider this possibility,» Cowen remarked.

The latest historical peak of the leading cryptocurrency was recorded at $124,128, achieved on August 14. At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $116,900.

Researcher Axel Adler, Junior assessed the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching its all-time high (ATH) in the next two weeks at 70%. He pointed out the balanced sentiment among investors.

According to the expert, the MVRV for short-term holders fluctuates around zero, with the cryptocurrency trading above the realized value for this group of market participants. This situation indicates a consolidation phase that may last one or two weeks before a «new breakout to ATH.»

The growth potential is supported by data on derivatives. The analyst emphasized that Bitcoin futures are consistently trading at a premium to the spot price. The seven-day basis exceeds the thirty-day basis—a structure typically associated with bullish trends.

«The base scenario (~70%) for the next two weeks suggests a stepwise upward trend or sideways movement. If a cluster of green trend confirmation signals emerges in the next few days, it would indicate an influx of new long positions, increasing the chances of reaching a new historical peak,» Adler, Junior wrote.

According to Glassnode, the heat map for Bitcoin reveals a concentration of supply around $117,000. Analysts have identified this level as a key resistance zone.

Breaking through this mark would signal further growth and potentially new highs, experts noted. Otherwise, Bitcoin may face prolonged consolidation or compression.

Glassnode also highlighted positive inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs. They indicated that this underscores institutional demand as a key factor supporting the market.

As of September 18, these instruments attracted $163 million, bringing the total investments over four trading sessions to $664 million. Last week, the overall inflow exceeded $2.3 billion—the highest since mid-July.

CryptoQuant analysts noted a rise in reserves of Bitcoin and Ethereum at the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. This metric reached $112 billion for the first time in four years.

«In previous cycles, an increase in reserves on major trading platforms like Coinbase often coincided with enhanced market liquidity and bullish price momentum,» the experts emphasized.

Lastly, macro-analyst Luke Gromen explained the philosophy of Bitcoin as digital gold. He stated that the cryptocurrency’s key advantage lies in its lack of yield.