Венчурный инвестор предрекает потенциальное падение биткоина на 70%, но видит будущее за цифровым золотом Translation: Venture investor predicts a potential 70% drop in bitcoin, but sees a bright future for digital gold.

The pioneering cryptocurrency is expected to continue experiencing cyclical fluctuations of rises and falls, with prices possibly plummeting by 65-70% over the next two years. This was expressed by Vinit Bhatia, CEO of Sigma Capital, during an interview with Cointelegraph.

«Even if Bitcoin falls to $70,000, it won’t lose its value, but the issue is that people fail to recognize this. When they invest in unfamiliar and unclear assets, they tend to sell them off immediately. This leads to an influx of supply,» explained the head of the venture firm.

However, over a ten-year horizon, Bhatia anticipates that the price of digital gold will surpass $1 million per coin. He believes that the adoption of cryptocurrency will increase due to the expansion of speculative trading and genuine use cases.

Several experts argue that the historically four-year cycles of Bitcoin, linked to halvings, have lost their relevance under current conditions. Analysts from K33 suggest that the price movements of the cryptocurrency are now largely influenced by the activities of institutional investors and macroeconomic policies.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes views the monetary policies of central banks as the predominant factor driving Bitcoin’s dynamics. He contends that traders have previously mistakenly associated cryptocurrency market cycles with reductions in block rewards.

Analysts from 10x Research noted that Bitcoin primarily responds not just to macroeconomic indicators like liquidity, but more significantly to specific inflows into the cryptocurrency, as reflected in investments in ETFs and other products.

The firm also pointed out that contrary to expectations, the growth of the global M2 money supply does not always trigger a rally in the price of digital gold.

«Liquidity sets the tone. Flows dictate the narrative. Once both trends align, the movement will be sharp, and most will claim they didn’t see it coming,” the analysts stated.

For the first time in seven years, Bitcoin closed October with a price drop, losing approximately 3.7% over the month. This decline is comparable to the ~3.8% drop during the bear market in 2018.

Historically, November has been the most favorable month for Bitcoin, averaging around a 42.5% increase.

«I genuinely believe that seasonal patterns matter greatly, but they need to be considered alongside many other factors,» commented Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, to Cointelegraph.

On October 11, threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on China triggered a market crash that resulted in record liquidations of over $19 billion. Following positive news regarding trade negotiations, cryptocurrencies partially regained their footing.

A positive signal came from the meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, experts consider this more of a pause in the “trade war” rather than its conclusion, as reported by Dennis Wilder, a professor and senior fellow with Georgetown University’s China Initiative.

On October 29, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4% for the second consecutive time. Bitcoin reacted cautiously to the regulator’s monetary easing.

CryptoQuant suggested that a continuation of this trend by the central bank in December could spark a new rally for the cryptocurrency. However, due to cautious statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, traders currently assess the likelihood of further rate cuts by the agency at 63%.

It’s worth noting that, should favorable macroeconomic and geopolitical events continue, Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $100,000, as predicted by Standard Chartered.