Исследование раскрывает, что четверть сделок на Polymarket — фиктивные Translation: Study reveals that a quarter of trades on Polymarket are fake

Over the past three years, approximately 25% of the total trading volume on the Polymarket prediction platform has been linked to transactions that exhibited signs of being fictitious. This is stated in a study conducted by Columbia University.

As part of the artificial activity, traders repeatedly bought and sold contracts either to themselves or in collusion with other accounts.

In July 2024, such transactions accounted for nearly 60% of the weekly trading volume on the platform. This trend particularly impacted the prediction markets for sporting events and elections, with some instances seeing figures reaching 90%.

*“This activity persisted until the end of April 2025, after which it significantly declined, only to rise again to about 20% of the volume at the beginning of October,”* the researchers specified.

They noted that they utilized their own algorithm to detect fictitious trading based on wallet behavior. Special attention was paid to how frequently users opened and closed positions, particularly in deals with other wallets that exhibited similar patterns.

The authors of the study added that their method enabled them to identify complex networks of addresses forming trading cycles or clusters encompassing tens of thousands of accounts. One identified group comprised over 43,000 wallets that generated trading volume nearing $1 million, with nearly all transactions being of minimal amounts and showing signs of artificiality.

In certain cases, traders rapidly moved contracts through numerous accounts, sometimes holding onto losing positions to create the appearance of legitimate activity. Additional evidence of coordinated actions was observed in the form of capital reuse by transferring USDC across several wallets.

The researchers highlighted that much of this activity did not yield profit. They considered the probable aims of fictitious trading to include securing future incentives, such as a rumored Polymarket token airdrop, and boosting platform rankings.

According to the study’s authors, the proliferation of artificial trades was largely driven by structural features of the platform itself—namely, the lack of user verification and trading fees.

In 2022, Polymarket settled a conflict with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by agreeing to pay a $1.4 million fine.

In 2024, U.S. law enforcement became interested in the platform due to suspicions of providing services to American users in violation of a ban. Some attributed the scrutiny of Polymarket to allegations of market manipulation and falsifying survey results favoring Donald Trump ahead of the November elections.

The Department of Justice *closed the investigation* into the platform in July 2025, and the CFTC also withdrew its claims.

Following this, Polymarket initiated a process to re-enter the U.S. market, *acquiring* the licensed derivatives exchange QCEX for $112 million.

It is worth noting that the platform is in negotiations to secure new investments currently valued at $12-15 billion, according to Bloomberg.

In October, Polymarket *received* $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange—the operator of the New York Stock Exchange.