МВФ указывает на риск долларизации из-за роста стейблкоинов в странах с высокой инфляцией Translation: IMF points to the risk of dollarization due to the growth of stablecoins in high-inflation countries

Tied to the US dollar, stablecoins may accelerate the process of dollarization in high-inflation countries, weakening central banks’ control over capital flows, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Experts believe that stablecoins could hasten the abandonment of national currencies by both individuals and businesses in nations with unstable economies.

«The ‘stablecoins’ have the potential to speed up dollarization, increase capital flow volatility by circumventing established restrictions, and fragment payment systems into isolated segments if their technical compatibility is not ensured,» the document states.

The risk is particularly pronounced in countries experiencing a crisis of confidence in their local financial systems. Under such circumstances, fiat-pegged digital assets can swiftly transition from a medium of exchange to a full-fledged alternative to the national currency.

This warning comes amidst the significant growth of the stablecoin segment. The report’s authors noted that since 2023, the market capitalization of the two largest tokens—USDT and USDC—has tripled, reaching a combined total of $260 billion.

Trading volumes skyrocketed to $23 trillion in 2024.

The geography of stablecoin usage is uneven. Asia has emerged as the clear leader regarding transaction volumes.

However, in terms of economic size, these assets are most actively utilized in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America—regions that have historically been prone to dollarization and the replacement of national currencies.

The IMF also acknowledged the positive potential of the technology. In many developing countries, digital services are outpacing traditional banking in terms of adoption rates.

Analysts believe that with proper regulation, stablecoins could provide certain benefits:

However, these advantages come with macrofinancial risks. A significant threat is the possibility of mass withdrawals from assets.

User doubts regarding the backing of stablecoins could trigger avalanche-like sell-offs. To meet their obligations, companies may be forced to sell off their assets rapidly, often government bonds, which could lead to upheavals in global financial markets.

The pseudonymous cross-border nature of stablecoins may also undermine capital flow control, facilitate illegal financing, and degrade the quality of macroeconomic data. The global distribution of holders, often obscured due to non-custodial wallets, complicates crisis monitoring and the formulation of regulatory measures.

Regulation in the sector is becoming clearer but remains inconsistent. In their report, IMF experts compared regulatory approaches in Japan, the US, the EU, and the UK, identifying differences in virtually all areas—from issuer and reserve requirements to foreign player admission.

Such fragmentation encourages regulatory arbitrage, with companies opting for jurisdictions with the most lenient rules. This fosters unfair competition and diminishes the effectiveness of oversight in the sector.

The Fund concluded that stablecoins are a «phenomenon that is here to stay.» However, whether they will serve as a source of stability or a risk factor largely depends on the global community’s ability to develop unified standards.

Recall that at the end of November, the Bank for International Settlements warned of financial risks associated with Real World Assets (RWA).