Новый отчет показывает, что краткосрочные держатели биткоина сталкиваются с серьезными убытками Translation: New report reveals that short-term Bitcoin holders face significant losses

New investors in the first cryptocurrency are incurring losses, as the asset has been trading below their average entry price for over a month. This was reported by CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman.

The realized price for short-term holders of Bitcoin (STH) who entered the market in the past 155 days stands at approximately $104,000. Since October 30, the price of digital gold has remained in a sideways trend around $90,000, putting consistent pressure on this group of investors.

“STH are extremely sensitive to the asset’s price movements and often dictate short-term market dynamics, making their behavior particularly crucial in the current context,” the expert explained.

The profitability of new investors is assessed using the MVRV indicator, which measures unrealized profit or loss by comparing the current rate to the average acquisition price. When the indicator drops below 1, it signifies that STH are experiencing losses. Currently, the metric fluctuates between 0.8 and 0.9.

The average loss is approximately -12.6%. According to Aleman, this suggests an active capitulation process rather than passive accumulation.

“Historically prolonged periods during which STH are at a loss typically coincide with phases of shaking out ‘weak hands’ and the transition of supply to more committed holders,” he noted.

Until Bitcoin can secure a position above the key level for short-term holders, market conditions for new investors are likely to remain challenging.

The current structure is more aligned with a transitional phase than the onset of a full-scale bear market, the analyst concluded.

In the meantime, long-term Bitcoin investors (LTH) continue to actively reallocate their assets, Swissblock analysts noted.

They indicated that during another attempt for prices to test the key resistance zone of $93,000-95,000, a new surge in selling pressure should be anticipated.

According to Glassnode, this group of Bitcoin holders has reduced their reserves by about 500,000 BTC since July, bringing their share of the total supply down to 71.92% — the lowest level since April.

In the last 30 days, LTH reserves have decreased by 761,000 BTC, CryptoQuant reported.

Such behavior historically coincides with late stages of the market cycle and profit-taking ahead of a potential peak, which aligns with Aleman’s conclusions based on STH behavior.

At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading around $86,900.

Data on unemployment and the U.S. business activity index is expected to be released on December 16. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe described this day as “significant for the markets,” including the cryptocurrency sector.

According to his analysis, digital gold needs to break through the $88,000 level to continue its upward trajectory.

If the price breaks through the $90,000 area, a rally to the $92,000-94,000 range is likely, the expert believes. This would enhance the chances of a surge to $100,000.

“However, if $90,000 continues to hold as resistance, there is a possibility of falling significantly lower,” van de Poppe added.