Переход к спотовым торгам может стать основой для восстановления крипторынка Translation: Shift to Spot Trading Could Lay the Ground for Crypto Market Recovery

Mass liquidations on October 10 prompted traders to reevaluate their risk strategies. They began shifting from derivatives to the spot market, according to analyst Darkfost from CryptoQuant.

Most of the increased activity occurred on the Binance exchange. While daily spot trading volumes for Bitcoin on the platform were in the range of $3-5 billion at the beginning of September, they stabilized between $5-10 billion after October 10. The analyst reports that the total volume on the largest cryptocurrency exchange reached $180 trillion.

The analyst believes that this shift indicates a more cautious approach from investors. The return to a «safe harbor» could lay the groundwork for sustainable recovery. Historically, periods of accumulation in the spot market often precede structural market growth, he noted.

Market participants anticipate that on October 29, the Federal Reserve will lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the new range is expected to be 3.75-4%.

«In such conditions, short-term growth of Bitcoin and Ethereum by 5-10% is possible, as well as a capital shift towards major altcoins like SOL and XRP,» he added.

Li mentioned that discussions about integrating stablecoins into the U.S. financial system during the Payments Innovation Conference could accelerate institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.

Alexander Peresichan, the CEO of TECHNOBIT, holds a different perspective. He believes that the potential decrease in rates is already reflected in current prices. The Fed’s decision is «unlikely to reverse the bearish trend,» Peresichan explained.

The expert pointed out that investors are increasingly focused on the trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Potential increases in tariffs on goods from «the workshop of the world» starting in November could heighten inflation risks.

In this context, market participants are seeking safe-haven assets, with a preference for gold. The high volatility of Bitcoin, around 5-7%, indicates traders’ uncertainty, the head of TECHNOBIT added.

Despite this, he maintains a positive outlook on the market’s medium-term prospects. He stated that a gradual reduction in the Fed’s rate and the influx of institutional capital could revive interest in cryptocurrencies within the next three to six months.

According to analysts at Glassnode, Bitcoin reserves among long-term holders (LTH) have decreased by 28,000 BTC since October 15.

They report that holders have sold more coins than they acquired due to the «aging» of assets from short-term investors. This suggests a net distribution rather than passive accumulation.

The average daily selling volume from LTH is steadily increasing. In early July, this figure was around 12,500 BTC, and now it has reached 22,500 BTC per day.

This trend indicates heightened selling activity from market veterans.

At the same time, experts from Lookonchain noted the activity of major players opening long positions.

One of them deposited 9.6 million USDC onto the Hyperliquid exchange, purchased 80.47 BTC, and opened a long position with 6x leverage on 133.86 BTC. Another whale funded their account with 1.5 million USDC and increased their Bitcoin long to 459.82 BTC.

Another market participant brought in 4 million USDC to open long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL. A fourth trader utilized 5.44 million USDC for a long position in Ethereum.

It is worth noting that analyst PlanB stated that fundamental indicators suggest the continuation of cryptocurrency market growth, despite recent corrections.