Питер Брандт открывает короткую позицию по биткоину на фоне мегафона и пессимизма рынка Translation: Peter Brandt opens short position on Bitcoin amid megaphone pattern and market pessimism

On the chart of the leading cryptocurrency, a «megaphone» pattern has emerged, which typically signals a decline in the asset’s price. Technical analyst Peter Brandt highlighted this.

Based on his observations, Brandt initiated a short position on Bitcoin futures. Nevertheless, he emphasized his long-term belief in digital gold and continues to hold it in his portfolio.

At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading at around $110,000. Over the past 24 hours, the coin’s price has dropped by 0.3%.

On October 30, Bitcoin’s price fell to $106,000. According to Santiment, this has diminished investor confidence in a swift market recovery, with many anticipating a correction to levels below $100,000.

The Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 29, indicating a predominance of pessimistic sentiment. The index has decreased by five points in a day.

Earlier, analysts from Glassnode pointed out the potential for a drop to $88,000. They noted that to avoid this scenario, Bitcoin needs to hold above $113,000.

However, Santiment specialists remarked that the market «often moves contrary to the expectations of the majority.»

“The current peak of pessimism creates conditions for a recovery rally — a classic case where maximum fear precedes a trend reversal,” the experts added.

On October 29, the Federal Reserve cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time, bringing it down to 3.75-4%. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, analysts speculated about the possibility of a new Bitcoin rally.

The following day, U.S. President Donald Trump, whose decisions significantly impact the crypto market, announced a reduction in import tariffs from China.

At the same time, trading commenced on spot exchange-traded funds based on a variety of altcoins in the United States.

However, neither the leading cryptocurrency nor the broader crypto market reacted to any of this positive news. XWIN Research Japan analysts believe one of the primary factors for this behavior is a decline in institutional demand.

The experts pointed to the Coinbase Premium Gap indicator, which reflects the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges. This metric has gone into negative territory.

“This traditionally signals a decrease in buying activity from American institutional investors. Historically, a negative premium often precedes short-term market corrections,” they explained.

Additional reasons include:

Trader Miles Deutscher noted that corporate treasuries have begun selling assets to stabilize their NAV. Additionally, demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has weakened.

He emphasized the significance of “Black Saturday” on October 11, which eroded trust in the crypto industry and deterred retail investors.

However, analysts from XWIN Research Japan characterized the current correction as «normal.» They believe that the medium-term outlook appears optimistic.

MN Trading founder Michael van de Poppe stated that for a new rally and a potential new all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin, the price needs to surpass $112,000.

“The asset has indeed reached a support level. If it breaks this boundary, the next target may be $103,000 or even lower,” he cautioned.

Nonetheless, van de Poppe anticipates that digital gold will hit a new historical maximum in November.

For the first time since 2018, Bitcoin is finishing October «in the red.» Analyst dubbed Crypto Rover highlighted that the last time this occurred, the leading cryptocurrency fell by 36% in November.

Investor Timothy Peterson disagreed with this interpretation. He stated, “a weak October means nothing,” but noted that growth “usually slows down.”

“The average three-month return of Bitcoin after a weak October is 11%, whereas after a strong October, it is 21%,” he remarked.

It’s important to mention that analyst using the pseudonym Crypto Dan forecasted the end of the correction and the beginning of an altcoin rally.