Полемика на рынке прогнозов: Polymarket или Kalshi сделают шаг к миллиардной оценке первыми? Translation: Headline: A Showdown in the Prediction Market: Will Polymarket or Kalshi Achieve a Billion-Dollar Valuation First?

The prediction platform Polymarket is in talks to secure new funding with a valuation estimated between $12 billion and $15 billion. This information was reported by Bloomberg, citing informed sources.

Since the beginning of the year, the project has completed several funding rounds. In June, the platform raised $150 million from Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, and in October, it secured $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the NYSE.

As a result, Polymarket’s valuation reached $9 billion, making its founder and CEO, Shane Coplan, the youngest billionaire in the world.

Simultaneously, Bloomberg reported that another major prediction platform, Kalshi, received funding offers from various venture investors, potentially valuing the project at $10 billion to $12 billion.

In early June, Kalshi acquired $185 million led by Paradigm, and in October, it raised $300 million from Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, Coinbase Ventures, General Catalyst, Spark Capital, and CapitalG.

In light of the recent investments, Kalshi’s annual trading volume reached $50 billion, emphasized CEO Tarek Mansour.

He also mentioned that the platform has opened access to users from over 140 countries.

Both platforms have previously faced scrutiny from American regulators.

The CFTC launched an investigation into Polymarket in late 2021, accusing it of unlawfully offering swaps and binary options to U.S. clients. In 2022, the platform settled the dispute by paying a $1.4 million fine. However, in 2024, the project attracted the attention of the FBI.

In July of this year, Coplan announced the official closure of the case against Polymarket. The platform is now actively preparing for its relaunch in the U.S. As part of this preparation, it has already acquired a regulated derivatives exchange, QCEX, for $112 million.

Recently, Polymarket added support for Bitcoin and launched markets allowing predictions on the rise or fall of stocks, indices, and commodities. This strengthened the project’s foothold and presence in traditional finance—previously, Polymarket lost its status as the leading prediction market.

In September, Kalshi captured a significant share of the segment, operating in the U.S. as a CFTC-regulated platform.

In 2024, the regulator attempted to prevent the platform from launching prediction markets on the outcomes of the U.S. presidential elections, but the court ruled that the Commission overstepped its authority. Consequently, the CFTC dropped its claims.

Experts attribute Kalshi’s success to betting on sporting events, which have become one of the fastest-growing sectors in the U.S.

It’s worth noting that the head of the cryptocurrency division at the company, John Van, stated that within the next year, the platform will become a part of all major blockchain applications and exchanges.