Предупреждение аналитика: биткоин может упасть на 70% в следующей медвежьей фазе Translation: Analyst warns: Bitcoin could drop by 70% in the upcoming bear phase.

The first cryptocurrency may face a decline of up to 70% during the upcoming bear market phase, according to Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto.

He pointed out that historical data suggests a potential correction. In previous cycles, the price of digital gold has fallen by 94%, 87%, and 77% from its peak.

«I would say there could be a 70% drop from the absolute maximum that Bitcoin reaches. Is this inevitable? No, but the lessons of history indicate that we should consider such a possibility,» Cowen stated.

The last historical peak of the leading cryptocurrency was recorded at $124,128 on August 14. At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $116,900.

Researcher Axel Adler Jr. assessed the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high (ATH) in the next two weeks at 70%. He noted the balanced sentiment among investors.

According to the expert, the MVRV for short-term holders hovers around zero. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency is trading above the realized value of this group of market participants. This situation indicates a consolidation phase for one or two weeks before a «new breakthrough to the ATH.»

The potential for growth is supported by derivative data. The analyst highlighted that Bitcoin futures are consistently trading at a premium to the spot price. The seven-day basis exceeds the 30-day basis, a structure often associated with bullish trends.

«The base scenario (around 70%) for the next two weeks: a stepwise upward trend or sideways movement. If a cluster of green trend confirmation signals appears in the next few days, it will indicate an influx of new long positions and increase the likelihood of reaching a new historical maximum,» Adler Jr. wrote.

According to Glassnode, the heat map for Bitcoin shows a concentration of supply around $117,000. Analysts have labeled this level as a key resistance zone.

Breaking through this mark would signal further growth and potentially new highs, experts noted. Otherwise, Bitcoin faces prolonged consolidation or compression.

Glassnode also pointed out positive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, emphasizing institutional demand as a key support factor for the market.

As of September 18, these instruments attracted $163 million, bringing the total investments over four trading sessions to $664 million. Last week, total inflows exceeded $2.3 billion—the highest since mid-July.

CryptoQuant analysts noted an increase in reserves of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the Coinbase exchange. This figure reached $112 billion for the first time in four years.

«In previous cycles, rising reserves on major exchanges like Coinbase frequently coincided with increased market liquidity and bullish price momentum,» the experts emphasized.

It’s worth recalling that macro analyst Luke Gromen explained the philosophy of Bitcoin as digital gold. He stated that the key advantage of cryptocurrency is its lack of yield.