Препятствия на пути роста биткоина: от спотовых продаж до кредитных рисков Translation: Obstacles to Bitcoins Growth: From Spot Sales to Credit Risks

According to the speaker, the ongoing correction is linked to significant selling volumes in the spot markets.

Primarily, assets are being sold by holders of crypto ETFs and digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, who «loudly proclaimed their purchases but then fell silent on sales.» As a result, there have been liquidations of long positions in derivatives.

The expert also identified a fundamental negative factor—the deterioration of lending conditions.

When discussing market trends, the trader emphasized that the spot market is the most crucial segment, although futures have higher volumes and also exert some influence. Meanwhile, inflows into exchange-traded funds are becoming an important indicator to monitor.

Options, on the other hand, are currently small in size, hence they have a negligible impact on prices.

The trader noted that December traditionally marks a period of diminishing volatility. By the end of the month, there will be «no one left to trade,» as Christmas approaches in the U.S. and Europe.

He predicted that new highs in the market are only possible if President Donald Trump gains control over the Federal Reserve and begins to devalue the dollar.

«There is a lack of this in his policies. Of course, a rebound may happen, but it won’t be about breaking records,» added the speaker.

Among the few positive factors is the start of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. Following a cut in the key interest rate on December 10, the regulator announced plans to purchase $40 billion in government treasuries.

The trader suggested that monthly accumulation volumes could reach between $40 billion to $120 billion with breaks throughout the year. This will support the markets, although the expert deemed these amounts to be relatively modest.

«Trump could truly change the game by replacing the head of the Fed, which would cause an immediate shock, but then his appointee would actively lower rates, devaluing the dollar. This is like a hypothetical gray swan in the market,» the interlocutor emphasized.

He clarified that the change in leadership at the Fed will occur even without the president’s intervention next May. It is most likely that a candidate loyal to Trump will take the position.

Recall, in December, a trader under the nickname Roman suggested a decline in the price of the first cryptocurrency to $76,000. He stated that the asset’s price is trapped in an upward channel that threatens to transform into a «bearish flag.»