Старинные киты могут спасти биткойн от квантовой атаки, уверяет аналитик Headline: Old whales could save bitcoin from quantum attack, analyst asserts

In the event of a hypothetical quantum attack on the wallets of Satoshi Nakamoto, «old whales» will safeguard the market, believes analyst Willy Woo.

The discussion was ignited by a post from YouTuber Josh Otten, who shared a chart forecasting a drop in the price of the first cryptocurrency to $3. He suggested that such a scenario could unfold if a quantum computer hacked Nakamoto’s wallet, stole 1 million BTC, and flooded the market with a sell-off.

Woo countered by stating that many long-term investors would likely seize the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a lower price. He is confident that the network would remain operational, as most coins are shielded from such attacks.

However, he acknowledged that around 4 million BTC are at risk, including some of Satoshi’s assets.

The vulnerable funds are held in outdated addresses like P2PK, which expose the full public key during transactions on the blockchain. This makes them a target for quantum computers capable of theoretically calculating the private key.

Modern wallet types offer better protection against quantum threats, as their key advantage is that the public key does not become exposed in the distributed ledger until a transaction occurs.

Woo’s assessment sparked a debate within the crypto community. A Bitcoin enthusiast operating under the pseudonym Dave W challenged the notion that the owner of a quantum computer would intentionally crash the market.

He argued that hackers would more likely aim to maximize their profit by opting for a gradual sell-off. He likened this to unlocking 20% of the circulating coins, which would not be catastrophic.

Woo conceded the complexity of the issue but introduced the factors of geopolitics and the concept of a specialized attack. He pointed out that if a Western nation were the first to act, the seizure of coins would be viewed as theft, as the keys themselves do not legally affirm ownership.

The expert also entertained the possibility of creating a specialized quantum computer:

«There is a potential for developing a quantum computer one or two generations behind the cutting edge, but with its architecture optimized specifically for Bitcoin signatures… Something like this could be achieved by a less well-funded rogue actor.»

He explained that the optimal strategy for such a rogue actor seeking maximum profit would not involve a direct dump of coins, but rather employing short positions in the futures markets. The hacker could profit from a sharp, yet short-lived, price drop.

In conclusion, Woo emphasized that regardless of the attack scenario, the network would endure. He compared it to the «block size war», after which old investors returned, leading to a market surge in 2017.

Previously, the expert recommended transferring bitcoins from old wallets to SegWit addresses and keeping them there for approximately seven years. In his view, the threat will not become real until at least 2030.

It is worth noting that in November, Bitcoin maximalist Adam Back described the danger posed by quantum computing as exaggerated.