трейдеры хеджируют риски падения биткоина с помощью пут-опционов на уровне $85 000 Translation: Traders hedge bitcoins decline risks using put options at the $85,000 level.

In the derivatives market, there is a notable accumulation of put options with a strike price of $85,000, as traders foresee a potential short-term drop in the price of the leading cryptocurrency below this threshold, according to CoinDesk.

Analysts from Derive.xyz noted an increase in the 30-day implied volatility to 45%. Simultaneously, a consistent negative skew remains, indicating significant demand for risk-hedging instruments.

The long-term skew has stabilized around -5%, potentially signaling the persistence of bearish sentiment in the first half of the upcoming year.

“At the year’s end, a clear defensive positioning is observable,” stated FxPro senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich. “The upward trend established at the end of November has been broken, and the trading environment resembles the October sell-off, where sharp rebounds failed to gain momentum.”

In contrast, the situation regarding the leading altcoin remains relatively stable. The short-term skew remains negative, but long-term metrics are approaching neutral levels, suggesting that market participants do not anticipate a prolonged decline.

However, ahead of the expiration on December 26, a significant cluster of put options has formed at the $2,500 mark, representing a critical risk zone.

Besides the short-term risks, experts warned of a potential reversal of the long-term trend. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone believes that the surge in price above $100,000 at the beginning of the year has set the stage for a more profound correction.

“The Bitcoin rally to six-figure levels could trigger a return cycle to $10,000, possibly already in 2026,” remarked McGlone.

He opined that periods of “extreme capital accumulation” often conclude with a sudden trend reversal. He cautioned that a collapse of high-risk assets with essentially unlimited issuance could serve as the catalyst for the next economic downturn.

On the other hand, McGlone highlighted Bitcoin’s resilience: from the start of 2025 to mid-December, the asset’s price has decreased by only 5%.

Nevertheless, on-chain metrics indicate market weakness. According to CryptoQuant, short-term holders have been experiencing unrealized losses for over a month. Analysts at Glassnode pointed out that long-term investors have reduced their positions by approximately 500,000 BTC since July.

FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich believes that the reduction in interest rates is less a driver of growth and more a signal indicating the end of the Federal Reserve’s stringent monetary policy. This has convinced investors to hold onto risk assets even during downturns.

“This patience helped Bitcoin reach new highs earlier this year,” noted the expert. “However, the level of leverage remains high, and the October wave of liquidations illustrated how fragile price formation can be with excessive position concentration.”

He believes that market dynamics will be influenced by geopolitical factors and leverage. Market participants are anticipating increased volatility towards year-end and are refocusing on hedging against potential price crashes.

Bitcoin traders are assessing risks associated with “witching day” in the U.S. stock market, a term used to describe the simultaneous expiration of options and futures on indices and stocks.

This event is traditionally accompanied by a surge in trading activity and sharp price fluctuations. In light of a packed macroeconomic agenda, the quarterly contract close could exacerbate volatility across all asset classes.

“This week, global markets are indeed facing many overlapping factors,” stated Tim Sun, a researcher at HashKey Group, in a conversation with Decrypt.

Key events include the U.S. labor market data and a meeting of the Bank of Japan. Along with a substantial expiration of derivatives, they will determine liquidity dynamics and risk perception.

“This could have an impact, but usually indirect,” explained Derek Lim from market maker Caladan.

He noted that the effect is transmitted through stock market dynamics, which shape the appetite for risk. This, in turn, reflects on cryptocurrencies as high beta assets.

Sun linked the prevalence of “risk-on sentiments” to the high correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq, which has intensified due to the influx of large investors.

“When massive derivatives expiration triggers position adjustments, institutions typically engage in cross-asset liquidity management. This means that sharp volatility in U.S. equities can easily lead to passive rebalancing in crypto markets,” he stated.

Historical data is mixed. Lim reminded that the March expiration crashed prices, while the June expiration resulted in a 2% loss for Bitcoin and Ethereum, followed by a month of stagnation. In contrast, the September event had minimal impact.

Current metrics, including a put/call ratio of 1.1, indicate caution among market participants. The situation is exacerbated by unstable inflows into ETFs and reduced liquidity ahead of the holidays.

Sun noted that the market is under pressure from conflicting macroeconomic signals. The recent rise in U.S. unemployment reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026, but this positive outlook is overshadowed by other factors.

“Possible tightening of the Bank of Japan’s policy could lead to the unwinding of carry trades and capital flight from highly volatile assets like Bitcoin,” the expert explained.

Growth is also stymied by investors’ doubts regarding the profitability of investments in the American artificial intelligence sector amid liquidity shortages.

Lim considers the influence of the stock market to be secondary and advises keeping an eye on developments within the crypto industry itself. In his view, the upcoming December 26 expiration on the Deribit exchange is far more important than the approaching “witching day.”

On this day, Bitcoin options with a nominal value exceeding $13.3 billion will expire — more than half of the current open interest. The “maximum pain” level, where most holders would incur losses, stands at $98,000.

Sun also reminded of seasonally driven price pressures: at year-end, institutional investors traditionally rebalance their portfolios.

“During this process, some players may reduce risks and lock in annual profits. This can create temporary selling pressure or amplify the volatility of risk assets, including Bitcoin,” the expert explained.

Analysts forecast unstable trading throughout the day, with peak volatility expected as the U.S. session closes. Meanwhile, the impact of the stock market on digital assets is likely to remain moderate.

It is worth noting that a trader under the nickname Roman suggested a potential decrease in the price of Bitcoin to $76,000.