Kalshi уверенно лидирует на рынке предсказаний, обгоняя Polymarket Translation: Kalshi confidently leads the prediction market, surpassing Polymarket

Representatives from Kalshi have announced that their platform has achieved 62.2% of the global trading volume in the prediction market, according to The Block.

In contrast, this figure stood at only 3.1% a year ago. Since the beginning of September, the platform’s trading volume has reached $1.39 billion.

The monthly trading volume for their main competitor, Polymarket, is $821 million.

Kalshi’s volume surpassed the $1 billion mark in November 2024 amid the US elections. Although September is still ongoing and Polymarket could potentially surpass its rival, recent months have shown an increase in interest towards Kalshi.

«It’s remarkable to see how rapidly Kalshi is growing,» commented the company’s CEO, Tarek Mansour.

Activity on both platforms has significantly declined following last year’s US elections, but analysts predict continued growth in the sector. Media reports suggest that companies may receive higher valuations in upcoming investment rounds.

Polymarket is also preparing to make a comeback in the US market following a 2022 agreement that restricted access for American users.

The platforms remain leading players in the prediction segment, where users can bet on the outcomes of various events. However, their business models differ markedly.

Polymarket is a decentralized platform with a focus on the cryptocurrency market. Recently, it has intensified efforts to resume operations in the US by acquiring the derivatives exchange QCEX.

Kalshi operates as a regulated US exchange. Recently, the platform has been striving to strengthen its presence in the crypto segment, including through integration with the Solana and Base networks.

Users are attempting to predict not only cryptocurrency prices but also corporate financial results and key economic decisions. According to Bernstein data, the trading volume related to a potential 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve exceeded $200 million on Polymarket and totaled $85 million on Kalshi.

Bernstein analysts note that prediction platforms are evolving as a new interface for information dissemination, merging cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, and news.

Coinbase and Robinhood are looking to establish themselves in this sector by allowing users to bet on the outcomes of sports events in popular leagues, including the NFL. In the US, sports betting has already become a multibillion-dollar market.

Additionally, Polymarket has announced the launch of a market for predicting the earnings of public companies.