Смена парадигм: Исчезновение четырехлетнего цикла биткоина по мнению аналитиков K33 Translation: Paradigm Shift: The Disappearance of Bitcoins Four-Year Cycle According to K33 Analysts

The historical trends that once shaped the dynamics of the first cryptocurrency are no longer relevant. This was stated by analysts at K33.

They believe that Bitcoin’s movement is now influenced more by institutional investors and macroeconomic policies rather than the traditionally associated halving patterns.

«The four-year cycle is dead; long live the new king,» declared Vetle Lunde, head of research at the firm.

On October 6, digital gold reached a historical high of over $126,000. Since the beginning of the year, the asset’s price has increased by more than 30%, according to TradingView.

The expert emphasized that the current rally is fundamentally different from previous bullish phases, describing it as the antithesis of past peaks.

A key point is the scale of institutional participation. Over the past week, spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed 31,600 BTC, while open interest on the CME rose by 15,000 BTC. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has become a significant player in the global market, noted the analyst.

Lunde acknowledged signs of a market overheating but anticipates only a short-term consolidation rather than a structural reversal.

«If in 2021, the peak coincided with the tightening of monetary policy and post-COVID caution, now [Donald Trump] will likely replace [Jerome Powell] with his appointee, who will lower interest rates. This is akin to pouring gasoline on the fire without expansionary policies. An era of abundant liquidity is on the horizon, rather than strict austerity. This scenario favors scarce assets like Bitcoin,» the analyst explained.

In the past 24 hours, the first cryptocurrency corrected by 2%. At the time of writing, digital gold trades around $122,600.

Swissblock analysts reported an increase in selling pressure from short-term holders, describing the price drop as a «healthy correction.»

«Unlike the panic profit-taking seen at previous peaks, the current wave seems orderly, indicating continued investor confidence. […] A key signal will be a reduction in selling while maintaining prices above $120,000-121,000 — this would confirm a controlled market reset, laying the groundwork for a new growth phase,» experts stressed.

Currently, fractal analysis shows similarities between Bitcoin’s present movement and past cycles: 1,051 days since the low in November 2022 versus 1,060 days in previous bullish trends. However, Lunde considers such parallels superficial.

«Fractals are a simplified approach to analyzing the situation,» he observed.

Instead of historical analogies, K33 relies on a system that evaluates six key parameters, of which only two indicate risks of nearing the cycle’s peak: the ratio of futures to spot market volumes and overbought conditions according to RSI. According to Lunde, this is insufficient to enter the «danger zone» typical of a peak.

«The price dynamics of Bitcoin remain healthy, and we see no signs of a repeat of the notorious four-year cycle,» concluded the analyst.

It’s worth recalling that in September, the end of the cycles for the first cryptocurrency was confirmed by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. A similar opinion is shared by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.