Артур Хэйес: монетарная политика определяет будущее крипторынка, а не исторические циклы Arthur Hayes: Monetary Policy Determines the Future of the Crypto Market, Not Historical Cycles

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes stated that the four-year cryptocurrency market cycle is no longer relevant. He believes that the price dynamics are driven by central banks’ monetary policies rather than historical patterns associated with halving.

Hayes argues that traders mistakenly anticipate the end of a bull market based on past cycles. He insists that previous periods ended due to tightening monetary conditions, not according to a fixed schedule.

According to Hayes, the current cycle is distinct for several reasons:

He recalled how monetary policy influenced the market in the past:

Hayes opines that this time, China will not be a primary driver of the rally, but it also won’t hinder it. The country’s authorities are shifting from a constrictive to a neutral or moderately stimulative policy. This removes a barrier that might have interrupted the cycle.

“Listen to our monetary authorities in Washington and Beijing. They make it clear that money will become cheaper and more accessible. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in expectation of this future,” he concluded.

The price of the leading cryptocurrency has stabilized following the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The document revealed that the majority of officials support further reductions in the key interest rate.

Approximately half of the committee members favor two additional monetary policy relaxations by the end of the year. Analysts believe this reinforces expectations for more favorable financial conditions in the fourth quarter.

“The global liquidity cycle is shifting. Central banks are moving from tightening to easing,” stated Tim Misir, head of research at BRN.

He added that markets now assess the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in October at 90%. According to Misir, such synchronized easing historically supports the growth of risk assets and bullish cycles for Bitcoin.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $123,400, having increased by 0.5% over the past day, according to CoinGecko.

Inflows into crypto funds remained positive. From September 26 to October 4, investors poured a record $5.95 billion into ETFs.

“Inflows into exchange-traded instruments are the clearest signal of institutional interest,” noted Function CEO Thomas Chen.

Wincent representative Paul Howard added that the recent inflows “helped establish a new price floor in anticipation of a rally by year-end.”

According to CME FedWatch, market participants estimate a 96.7% probability of a rate cut.

Traders on the Polymarket platform assess a 91% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction at the meeting on October 29.

Analysts have set a short-term range for digital gold between $121,000 and $126,000. A decisive breakout above the upper limit could pave the way to $130,000.

Open interest in Bitcoin options exceeds $50 billion.

Further price movement will depend on the Fed’s monetary easing schedule and sustained demand from ETFs.

It’s worth noting that analysts from K33 have stated that the historical patterns that once determined the dynamics of the leading cryptocurrency are no longer relevant.