Аналитик PlanB: Бычиьи тренды Биткоина продолжаются, несмотря на коррекцию Translation: Analyst PlanB: Bitcoins bullish trends continue despite correction

The recent adjustment of Bitcoin, falling below $108,000, does not signify the end of the bull market. Fundamental indicators suggest ongoing growth, as highlighted by the creator of the S2F model and analyst PlanB.

«Bears believe that the peak at $126,000 has passed, Bitcoin will drop below $100,000, and 2026 will usher in a bear market. […] In my opinion, this is a serious misconception,» he stated.

The expert contends that the three previous cycles provide an insufficient sample size to establish a robust pattern. According to the traditional model, the peak of the premier cryptocurrency should occur in October—18 months post the last halving.

However, PlanB acknowledged the possibility that Bitcoin may reach its peak at a later time. He pointed out the lack of crucial signals characteristic of the final phase of a bull market: the RSI has not exceeded 80, and the realized price remains aligned with the 200-week moving average.

«This indicates one of two scenarios: either a significant rally lies ahead or we have already entered a phase of price stability defined by institutional investors, funds, and rebalancing mechanisms,» he explained.

The expert labeled both scenarios as bullish for Bitcoin.

In September 2024, PlanB predicted that the first cryptocurrency would rise to $1 million by 2025.

Analyst Willy Woo also noted structural differences between market cycles. In the previous bull phase, liquidity flowed from “paper” derivative markets, whereas it is now decreasing.

«Paper assets are a short-term tool; investors enter but do not stay long. This cycle presents a different landscape. The paper segment is already beginning to contract, while long-term spot liquidity remains robust for now,» the expert remarked.

However, he cautioned that the situation could change.

Interestingly, in January, PlanB moved his capital from Bitcoin savings into spot ETFs based on digital gold.

It should be noted that BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes asserted that the four-year cycle of the crypto market is no longer relevant.

This perspective is shared by analysts from K33 and several other experts, including the CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju and Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.