Examining the Realities of Air Safety in Russia: Are Fatalities on the Rise?

If not for the plume of smoke swirling above the dense pine forest, the scene could have been mistaken for any other area of Russia’s expansive and sparsely populated Far East.

Earlier that day, an Antonov An-24, carrying 48 individuals, vanished from radar as it was nearing Tynda, a town in the Amur region near the Chinese border. Upon reaching the source of the smoke, investigators found merely a crumpled mass of metal amid the trees, with no survivors in sight.

The tragedy that occurred on July 24 has spurred authorities to initiate an investigation into 51 regional airlines in a bid to enhance safety protocols in an industry experiencing what they claim is a rise in fatalities. This week, Angara Airlines, the operator of the ill-fated flight, was grounded.

However, while sanctions are severely impacting the domestic aviation industry, experts and industry monitors have pointed out that the more prominent issue lies in the increase of technical mishaps rather than fatalities.

Data from the German airline safety agency JACDEC, accessed by The Moscow Times, reveals that there has not been a significant rise in air-related fatalities in Russia in recent years.

In fact, «hull losses»—which refer to the complete destruction of an aircraft—have remained relatively stable, while serious incidents have shown only a modest uptick. JACDEC’s data focuses on incidents involving civilian aircraft that weigh more than 5.7 tons or have a minimum capacity of 19 seats.

What is noticeably increasing are minor safety violations, spanning engine malfunctions, fires, collisions, and errors during takeoff and landing.

“We are observing an uptick in technical incidents… which could be linked to a lack of supply chains and certified spare parts such as avionics, carbon brakes, or turbine components that impact the reliability of schedules,” remarked Jan-Arwed Richter, CEO of JACDEC. “However, this does not extend to an increase in actual crashes.”

The absence of a distinct trend in air fatalities calls into question the official narrative regarding their rise.

Additionally, findings from The Moscow Times indicate that the ongoing sanctions—particularly the unavailability of parts needed for aircraft repairs—continue to burden domestic aviation, suggesting that air travel may be becoming increasingly hazardous.

Experts argue that these inspections might be an effort to reassure a concerned public and ensure the country’s shrinking fleet of operational planes is safe to operate.

When news of the crash on July 24 emerged, many were quick to examine the aircraft—a Soviet-era Antonov-24, allegedly around 50 years old.

First introduced in the early 1960s, the 52-seat twin-turboprop aircraft is emblematic of the outdated commercial planes that domestic passengers have increasingly been required to use during wartime conditions in Russia.

“For many regional routes, especially in Siberia, airlines have no choice but to continue flying older aircraft types, as many remote airports lack the necessary infrastructure for newer or larger jets like the Sukhoi Superjet,” explained Oleksandr Laneckij, CEO of Friendly Avia Support, a consulting firm based in Lithuania.

Then came the accounts of the victims: individuals whose backgrounds were relatable to anyone in the community.

There was 71-year-old surgeon Leonid Maizel, who was aboard the flight on his way to visit his granddaughter and take her to the Far East city of Khabarovsk.

Flight attendant Anastasia Bessmertnaya, 43, was praised by a colleague as “kind” and “full of life.”

Sergei Shiyan, along with his wife and their 18-month-old daughter, was traveling to visit family on his wife’s side.

In the aftermath of the crash, the deputy director of Russia’s transport authority mentioned an uptick in aviation-related fatalities between 2023 and 2024 as a justification for the extensive inspections.

In December, authorities will commence a year-long review process focusing on the regulatory compliance, crew training, and equipment performance of the 51 regional airlines.

Angara Airlines, which operated the fatal July flight that was grounded this week, was prioritized for inspection.

While JACDEC data indicates an increase in aviation deaths from 2022 to the current year, the broader context is more nuanced.

In truth, Russia’s average annual fatalities related to aircraft incidents have stabilized at roughly 30 over the past decade. When examining this decade, the last three years do not appear extraordinary.

JACDEC’s statistics illustrate that the deadliest period for Russian aviation occurred from 2000 to 2010, with a series of devastating crashes resulting in an annual average of 71 deaths.

The causes behind July’s Antonov crash remain uncertain. Investigators are reportedly looking into both pilot error and technical failures, possibly linked to sanctions, as potential causes.

Laneckij suggested that the situation is likely attributed to the latter.

“Sanctions have undoubtedly set the stage for circumstances that led to the accident,” he stated to The Moscow Times. “Without these constraints, aircraft of this vintage would likely have been retired from service.”

Older aircraft are more susceptible to technical difficulties. Since 2022, there has been a clear rise in both minor and serious incidents, averaging 66 per year.

By October, there had already been over 60 such occurrences in 2025, according to JACDEC data.

Part of this increase may be due to improved transparency in the public sources utilized by JACDEC to construct its databases, said Richter, the CEO.

These findings coincide with Russia’s own regulatory data. The Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC), responsible for tracking aircraft incidents in Russia and surrounding nations, has not reported a significant escalation in accidents since the war began, and recent years suggest a decline in the average number of injuries and fatalities.

“Examining IAC’s data from 2023 to 2024 reveals no significant industry-wide deterioration in safety,” noted Steven Harris, a history professor at the University of Mary Washington who studies Russian aviation.

Although the IAC also encompasses the Caucasus and Central Asia, Harris indicated that the data remains informative for insights into Russian aviation.

However, it’s important to note that Russia’s self-reported data might not present a complete picture. Last year, the CEO of flight safety firm RANAVIA claimed that the true number of aviation incidents might be greater than officially reported due to airline personnel opting not to disclose them.

Currently, a significant number of aircraft in Russia are sitting nearly abandoned throughout the nation. The commercial aviation sector heavily impacted by sanctions has been unable to procure vital Western components for over three years, rendering these aircraft unsafe for operation.

In a nation as expansive as Russia, flying is often the only feasible means of reaching remote areas, prompting airlines to adapt in order to sustain their services.

Some operators have managed to keep their fleets up to date by illicitly importing parts. The government has disbursed billions of rubles in subsidies to support aircraft manufacturing and keep airlines operational, as well as acquire formerly leased planes. In 2023, authorities even legalized the practice of stripping aircraft for parts, an act crudely referred to as “cannibalization.”

Nevertheless, the state of Russia’s commercial aviation fleet is so critical that officials anticipate retiring over 300 airplanes and 200 helicopters in the forthcoming years, according to Dmitry Yadrov, the head of the Federal Agency for Air Transport, who made this statement earlier this month. Nearly 30% of Western-made jets could be rendered inactive by 2030.

During a recent gathering of the International Civil Aviation Organization, Russian officials appealed to their Western counterparts for an easing of sanctions on Western aircraft components, reportedly framing the issue as a matter of safety.

Now, officials are uncertain if they can continue to paper over the problem, according to Harris, who is authoring a book about Aeroflot, Russia’s flagship airline.

In addition to calming an uneasy public, one of the motivations behind the recent comprehensive inspections may be to ensure that Russia’s dwindling commercial fleet is capable of handling increased demand.

“To their credit, they are trying to proactively address this situation,” Harris stated.

“Conversely, there might be additional dynamics at play, such as the state’s inclination to consolidate the regional airline market and take control of some smaller carriers,” he added. “Nothing like a strict performance evaluation to serve as a pretext for that.”

Laneckij, the CEO of Friendly Avia Support, concurred that other motivations could be influencing scrutiny of the industry, potentially altering its landscape in the coming years.

“Aeroflot, as the country’s dominant airline, has a strategic interest in monopolizing the market by sidelining weaker competitors,” he stated. “Smaller and regional airlines, which generally lack significant political or financial backing, are particularly vulnerable to such pressures.”