Steady Territorial Advances: Russias Strategic Focus in Eastern Ukraine – October Insights

In October, the Russian military made consistent progress in Ukraine, concentrating its efforts on the eastern Donetsk region, according to an analysis by the AFP that utilized data from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

This area has experienced some of the fiercest combat throughout the nearly four-year-long conflict, leaving Ukraine urgently trying to maintain its hold on the strategic city of Pokrovsk.

The ISW analysis, which collaborates with the Critical Threats Project, revealed that Russia gained control of 461 square kilometers (286 square miles) during this month. This figure aligns with the average monthly territorial gains seen this year, which is a decrease from a spike in July when Russia acquired 634 square kilometers.

Currently, Russia commands 81% of the Donetsk region, which it asserts it has annexed, and it is pushing to establish complete dominance over the area.

Moscow has insisted that Ukraine must withdraw its forces from Donetsk, as well as from Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, as a prerequisite for any peace negotiations—a demand that Kyiv has deemed unacceptable.

Several attempts at negotiations have been unable to resolve the stalemate regarding the conflict’s resolution.

Overall, Russia currently claims control over 19.2% of Ukrainian territory, which includes the Crimean peninsula annexed in 2014 and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions taken by pro-Russian separatists before the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

Recently, the critical logistical center of Pokrovsk—targeted by Moscow for over a year—has faced intensified efforts from Russian forces.

On Monday, Ukraine’s 7th Air Assault Brigade reported that the «operation to liberate Pokrovsk from occupiers is ongoing,» with special forces dispatched to the city over the weekend.

They also indicated that Russian troops were advancing toward the outskirts of the nearby city of Myrnohrad, which has also been subjected to heavy assault from Russian forces for over a year.

«The city’s defenses have been bolstered with additional troops,» the brigade stated.

Additionally, ISW data indicated that Russia expanded its control by 150 square kilometers in the Dnipropetrovsk region, located west of Donetsk, during the month. This region does not fall within the five Ukrainian areas, including Crimea, that Moscow claims as its own.

In March 2022, at the peak of its invasion, Russia controlled 27.7% of Ukraine, but Ukrainian forces subsequently expelled Russian troops from vast expanses of the eastern and southern regions.