Трамп и «винтики» экономики: как «дивиденды» потенциально взлетят биткоин до небес Translation: Trump and the Economys Gears: How Dividends Could Potentially Skyrocket Bitcoin to the Skies

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a «dividends» program for Americans funded by revenues from trade tariffs.

«Everyone will receive dividends of at least $2000, excluding high-income individuals,» the politician stated on his social media platform, Truth Social.

Currently, the Supreme Court is evaluating the legality of the tariff measures proposed by the president.

Traders in prediction markets express skepticism about the approval prospects. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the likelihood is estimated at 23%.

According to analysts from The Kobeissi Letter, around 85% of the adult population in the U.S., or 220 million people, may receive payments. In this scenario, the total dividend payout would amount to $440 billion.

Experts have raised concerns about inflation risks. Similar incentives in 2020 led to inflation peaking at 10%. Currently, inflation stands at 3%.

Andy Konstant, CEO of Damped Spring Advisors, noted that Trump lacks the authority to unilaterally approve such payments. Legislative authority makes the decisions.

The expert expressed doubt that Congress would endorse the president’s initiative.

Tax and budget specialists pointed out the mismatch between the amount of tariff revenue collected and the stated goals of the payments.

According to the estimate from vice president for federal tax policy Erika York, the promised dividends from Trump would require at least $300 billion. So far, tariffs have only generated $120 billion.

In light of the overall impact of tariffs on the budget, the financial outlook for the program appears even more dubious, the expert said. She explained that each dollar received from trade tariffs incurs a budget cost of 24 cents due to reduced income tax and social contribution revenues.

Considering the indirect effects, net budget revenue decreases to about $90 billion.

Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, believes that if realized, Trump’s initiative could positively affect the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

Previously, Bitfinex analysts expressed a similar view, drawing parallels to events in 2020. At that time, COVID-19-related payments stimulated a surge of funds from retail investors, contributing to Bitcoin’s rise.

In March 2020, the U.S. president signed a $2 trillion initiative, providing payments of up to $1200 to citizens with a gross adjusted income of up to $75,000.

During that period, Bitcoin’s price surged by 1050%, rising from $6000 in March 2020 to $69,000 by November 2021. However, this increase coincided with the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing efforts, which included a $4 trillion bond-buying program that expanded the money supply.

The current «dividend» payment could also coincide with a favorable policy for cryptocurrencies by the Federal Reserve. Investors anticipate that at the December 10 meeting, the regulator will cut the key interest rate by an additional 25 basis points.

It is worth noting that the potential end of the government shutdown in the U.S. has invigorated the cryptocurrency market.