Moscow’s Dilemma: Maintaining Influence in Latin America Amid U.S. Pressure on Venezuela

As the United States has recently positioned warships and submarines in the Caribbean and intensified operations against suspected Venezuelan drug-smuggling vessels, President Nicolás Maduro turned to a significant ally: Russia.

In an October televised address, Maduro proclaimed that Venezuelans were prepared to “overcome this blatant conspiracy against the peace and stability” of their nation. According to reports, he sent a letter to President Vladimir Putin asking for missiles and assistance in repairing Russian-made fighter jets.

Former U.S. officials and regional experts who spoke with The Moscow Times suggested that Maduro’s request highlights his increasingly desperate situation. However, they noted that relying on Moscow in a potential conflict with Washington is unlikely to yield positive results.

Observers speculate that if President Donald Trump is indeed trying to oust Maduro, a U.S. triumph could result in Moscow losing a pivotal ally in Latin America.

James Story, the U.S. ambassador to Venezuela from 2018 to 2023, remarked, “If this [situation] were to somehow have a [broader] impact, then of course it pushes Russia out of the [Western] hemisphere.”

With the U.S. Navy boasting its largest aircraft carrier in the Caribbean, some analysts consider regime change increasingly feasible.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed this week that such strategies “will not yield favorable outcomes.” Nevertheless, experts argue that the Kremlin, already stretched thin by the war in Ukraine, has limited capacity to intervene meaningfully.

“I don’t think the relationship runs very deep or is particularly strategic,” Story commented. “Russia views Venezuela as a low-cost mission focused on force deployment. It’s an opportunistic alliance that complicates matters for the United States, diverting attention from other issues, and it can be managed with minimal investment.”

Since regaining office for his second term, Trump has consistently increased pressure on Maduro, whom he accuses of facilitating drug trafficking into the U.S.

In August, the U.S. military began sending warships, attack submarines, and aircraft to the Caribbean. The next month, American forces commenced targeting suspected drug-smuggling boats. While U.S. officials claim this approach aims to combat narcotics trafficking, it has faced backlash after over 70 individuals, mostly Venezuelan, perished in such strikes across the Caribbean and the Pacific.

Some analysts believe Trump’s actual goal is to instigate regime change in Caracas. During a recent interview on “60 Minutes,” he seemed to confirm this perspective. When asked if he believed Maduro’s presidency was nearing its end, Trump responded: “I would say yeah. I think so, yeah.”

Maduro’s authority faced its last significant challenge in 2019 when opposition figures contested his re-election. At that time, U.S. officials initiated a “maximum pressure” campaign—including sanctions on the oil sector—to weaken the government.

During that crisis, Russia played a discreet but crucial role in fortifying Venezuela’s defenses by sending approximately 100 technical advisors to maintain military equipment.

“Typically, these Russians would handle repairs on the Sukhoi fighter jets and attack helicopters,” Story remarked. “They provided maintenance and operational support for surface-to-air missile systems.”

Until recently, there was scarce evidence that Venezuela had once again sought military assistance from Moscow. That changed with the aforementioned letter.

Initially reported by The Washington Post in late October, the letter included a request to Putin for aid in refurbishing Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30 jets, repairing military gear, and acquiring 14 missile systems.

Just days prior, a Russian military transport aircraft landed in Caracas, raising speculation that support might already be en route.

“If I had to write a summary about this situation, it would probably begin with: ‘Too little, too late,’” commented Brian Naranjo, a former U.S. diplomat. “Venezuela is attempting to strengthen its ties with Russia in a desperate bid to seek allies and resources.”

Naranjo, who believes some form of intervention from the Trump administration is plausible, noted that Maduro is “trying to increase political pressure on the Russians to either commit or withdraw.”

“That approach is unlikely to bear fruit with the Russians,” Naranjo added, referencing his understanding of their negotiation style.

This week, Lavrov seemed to dismiss the report, stating to Russian media that Venezuelan officials “haven’t approached us” for military assistance.

However, there are indications of existing support. A Russian lawmaker claimed this month that Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E missile systems had recently arrived in Venezuela, though The Moscow Times could not independently verify such information. Besides the Sukhoi aircraft, Venezuela’s military also relies on Russian long-range S-300 missile systems and short-range Igla-S missile systems, according to Maduro.

A notable concern is that many of these systems may no longer be operational, according to a former U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

“Over the years, Venezuela acquired highly sophisticated air defense systems from Russia,” the official stated. “It remains unclear what condition these systems are in or how well they’ve been maintained.”

When Russia dispatched advisors to Venezuela in 2019, their presence projected support and may have complicated any American plans for military intervention at the time, said Vladimir Rouvinski, director of the Laboratory of Politics and International Relations at Icesi University in Colombia.

Rouvinski now sees similarities between Russia’s challenges in Venezuela and its recent loss of another important ally.

“A parallel can be drawn to Assad in Syria,” he told The Moscow Times. “Should Moscow fail to preserve the Maduro regime, it would be reminiscent of past experiences.”

He was referencing the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government in 2024. Like Maduro, Assad relied on Russia when isolated by the international community. Assad’s ousting diminished Russia’s reputation as a trustworthy protector of beleaguered allies.

If Maduro were to be deposed and a new government established, Russia’s credibility could again suffer, Rouvinski observed.

“The primary risk now is the disintegration of what Moscow has attempted to build over many years in Latin America—its status as a significant player capable of global influence,” he explained.

With its military resources stretched due to the war in Ukraine, Russia no longer possesses the flexibility it once had to exert influence abroad. While some degree of assistance to Venezuela is still feasible, Rouvinski suggested it would likely be symbolic rather than substantive.

“I don’t believe Russia is prepared to go very far to safeguard the Maduro government,” he remarked. “Realistically, Russia is not equipped for such engagement.”