ФРС завершает QT: финансы на грани, крипторынок на пороге новых возможностей Translation: Fed Ends QT: Finances on the Edge, Crypto Market on the Brink of New Opportunities

In October, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced the key interest rate by 25 basis points and announced the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) program effective December 1. However, the so-called «victory over inflation» was actually a necessary pivot due to escalating challenges in the financial system, as stated by Binance Research.

Analysts noted that the catalyst for this decision was the U.S. government shutdown, which caused the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance to exceed $1 trillion. This effectively removed approximately $700 billion in liquidity from the banking system, comparable to the impact of several rate hikes.

Signs of systemic stress were evident in the sharp increase in the spread between SOFR and IORB rates, as well as the unprecedented utilization of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), an emergency funding tool.

On October 31, the volume of requests to the SRF reached a historic peak of $50.35 billion, indicating a lack of private financing.

Researchers also highlighted structural issues within the economy. Despite a relatively stable unemployment rate of 3.8%, the private sector is shedding jobs, with the employment growth being driven by government hiring.

By the second quarter of 2025, household debt reached a record high of $18.7 trillion, with delinquencies on consumer loans climbing to multi-year highs.

For the cryptocurrency market, the end of QT signifies the removal of the principal macroeconomic barrier from the past two years. Experts anticipate that the depletion of funds from the TGA following the end of the government shutdown will create a «slingshot effect,» injecting liquidity into the markets.

By the first quarter of 2026, analysts predict that the Fed will shift to a «QE-Lite» policy, purchasing short-term Treasury bills to replenish bank reserves. This, alongside a strengthening narrative of Bitcoin as an «anti-fragile» asset amid the vulnerabilities of traditional finance (TradFi), could serve as a catalyst for a new wave of cryptocurrency growth.

Among the main risks identified by researchers are the potential for stagflation or a «hard landing» of the economy. They assessed the current macroeconomic situation as a «shift from headwinds to tailwinds» for risky assets like digital gold.

Additionally, XWIN Research analysts outlined the risks of Bitcoin’s decline to $60,000 due to the Fed’s hawkish decisions.