Russian Markets Surge on Hopes of Swift Resolution to Ukraine Conflict

At the opening of trading on Friday, Russia’s stock market experienced an uptick driven by reports of a new plan from the Trump administration aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine. This sparked optimism that peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow may lead to an agreement after nearly four years of conflict.

The Moscow Exchange Index (MOEX) surged by 2.4%, reaching 2,691 points right at the start, with most major stocks enjoying gains between 3% and 5%.

Leading the gains were Tatneft and Aeroflot, with shares from both companies rising approximately 4%, while Gazprom, Sberbank, and Lukoil all experienced increases of 3%.

The market’s upward movement began on Thursday evening after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his willingness for “honest” collaboration with the United States and Europe regarding the proposed U.S.-Russian peace plan, which reportedly has the backing of President Donald Trump.

This 28-point plan reportedly involves significant territorial and military concessions from Ukraine and includes the lifting of sanctions on Russia. Zelensky emphasized that any agreement must ensure a “dignified peace” that honors Ukraine’s sovereignty.

According to Bloomberg, Washington has indicated to Zelensky that he should consider accepting the plan. The Financial Times noted that U.S. officials anticipate he will agree to it “before Thanksgiving” next Thursday, as the White House is pushing for a rapid resolution to end the conflict by the New Year.

Investment banker Yevgeny Kogan remarked that the Russian market’s positive reaction reflects a high level of investor confidence, with the MOEX gaining 8% over the past three days.

Kogan mentioned that the index might climb to 3,400 points if peace negotiations proceed effectively, but he cautioned that market volatility is likely during this period.

“This presents a high-risk, high-reward situation; while the rally could persist, market responses will be highly sensitive to developments from the negotiations,” he shared in a Telegram post on Friday morning.

Some aspects of the proposed U.S.-Russian peace initiative may not sit well with Kyiv, particularly provisions that would require Ukraine to relinquish territory to Russia and significantly downsize its military.

Additionally, it’s uncertain whether President Vladimir Putin would agree to transfer $100 billion in frozen Russian assets for the purpose of rebuilding and investing in Ukraine, as indicated in the plan.

In other news, oil prices decreased by 1.5% to $62.42 per barrel, marking a third consecutive day of declines. This downturn is attributed to concerns over an oversupply in the global market and potential disruptions that could arise from an end to the war in Ukraine.

While Russia’s stock market rallied, global stocks faced declines amid rising fears regarding an AI bubble. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped by 2.4% at the close on Friday, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell by around 2%.