Мрачный рынок криптовалют: отсутствие розничного интереса ставит крест на альтсезоне Grim Cryptocurrency Market: Lack of Retail Interest Dashes Altseason Hopes

The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a lack of volatility, which hinders the emergence of a full-fledged altcoin season. This was stated by Saad Ahmed, the head of the Asia-Pacific division of the Gemini exchange, in an interview with DL News.

According to him, there is a noticeable absence of the previous excitement from retail traders, who were once the primary drivers of growth for alternative coins.

“The insane profits that investors used to secure are not visible now. Much of the retail frenzy was driven by this market characteristic, which is currently lacking,” the expert explained.

Previous bullish phases were marked by high volatility and typically began with a Bitcoin rally. After locking in profits, traders would reallocate capital into riskier assets like Ethereum and Solana.

Now, the dynamics have shifted: institutional investors with «long-term horizons» dominate the market. Their presence tends to stabilize price fluctuations and slows down the capital rotation into altcoins.

Gracy Chen, the CEO of Bitget, confirmed this trend:

“Traders dealing with alternative coins are facing a terrible risk-reward ratio following the market crash on October 10-11. Let’s be realistic — an alt season won’t occur in 2025 or 2026.”

Ahmed pointed out the capital flow from risk-tolerant retail traders to the stock market. This transition has been facilitated by crypto trusts (DAT) — publicly traded companies specifically created to accumulate digital assets, often utilizing financial leverage.

In the past year, the stocks of such firms have shown volatility comparable to high-risk crypto investments.

For instance, shares of Cantor Equity Partners, a SPAC company that transformed into the Bitcoin treasury Twenty One Capital after a merger, surged by about 500% following the announcement of its business transformation.

SharpLink Gaming’s stock, which announced a strategy for accumulating Ethereum last summer, increased by 3800%.

However, this rapid rise was followed by a correction. Shares of Twenty One capital ended their debut session down by 20%. SharpLink is trading 60% below its peak values.

Despite the lack of retail excitement, interest in crypto assets remains high, primarily driven by institutional investors.

Experts do not rule out the possibility of retail traders returning to the market. However, they note that until this happens, we shouldn’t expect significant volatility or the onset of a classic altcoin season.

Gemini has received a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch a regulated platform for taking bets on event outcomes.

The new platform is named Gemini Titan. In the future, it may expand its offerings to include other derivative instruments, such as futures, options, and perpetual contracts for cryptocurrencies.

This decision marks a strategic turnaround for the CFTC, which had previously expressed skepticism towards prediction markets. In 2021, the Commission blocked Polymarket and for a long time restricted U.S. users’ access to Kalshi.

The situation changed following a legal victory for Kalshi and personnel shifts within the agency. Caroline Pham was appointed as the acting chair, who has been described by Gemini’s president Cameron Winklevoss as friendly towards the crypto industry.

Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket are the main players in this segment. In November, the combined turnover of these platforms approached $10 billion — a record high since their inception.

It’s worth noting that the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase is preparing to enter the prediction market space. Similar plans were revealed by Mike Novogratz, the founder of Galaxy Digital, at the end of November.