Криптоиндустрия на пороге медвежьего рынка: инвесторы готовятся к падению до $56 000 Headline: Crypto Industry on the Brink of a Bear Market: Investors Brace for a Drop to $56,000

The growth in demand for the primary cryptocurrency has slowed down, suggesting a potential shift towards a bear market. This conclusion has been drawn by analysts from CryptoQuant.

Experts predict that a bottom will form near the realized price of around $56,000, indicating a decline of 55% from the historical peak. An intermediate support level is identified at $70,000.

Analysts pointed out that since 2023, the industry has experienced three significant waves of activity driven by the launch of spot ETFs in the U.S., the outcomes of the American elections, and an increase in corporate treasury holdings.

Since early October 2025, demand metrics have dropped below trend values. Experts believe that the bulk of purchases in the current cycle has already been executed, undermining the price’s key support.

Institutional investors are moving towards reducing their positions. In the fourth quarter of 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers, offloading 24,000 BTC, contrasting with the active accumulation observed at the end of 2024.

Wallets holding between 100 to 1000 BTC are also demonstrating below-trend dynamics. A similar scenario was noted at the end of 2021, just prior to the onset of the «crypto winter.»

The derivatives market backs up the decline in risk appetite. Funding rates have plummeted to the lows of December 2023. The price of the leading cryptocurrency has fallen below the 365-day moving average. Historically, this level marks the divide between bullish and bearish phases.

CryptoQuant emphasized that Bitcoin’s four-year cycles are influenced by the expansion and contraction of demand rather than by halving events.

CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain asserts that the Bitcoin market has entered a bearish phase, as indicated by technical indicators and a decrease in network activity.

The expert noted that the 30-day moving average has fallen 0.52% below the 365-day moving average. The declining trend is also confirmed by the Bull-Bear indicator.

A consistent decrease in active addresses signals an outflow of speculators and a decline in trading interest.

Network slowdown is observable through the 7-day moving average of key metrics.

Comparing current data with 2018 figures, GugaOnChain identified identical patterns: a downturn in transactional activity, low fees, and the exit of «whales.»

The main difference lies in the user base size: there are currently 800,000 active participants compared to 600,000 in the previous cycle, reflecting greater network maturity. The expert concluded that such a lull often serves as a precursor to a surge in volatility.

It is worth recalling that Yurien Timmer, Director of Global Macro Research at Fidelity, predicted the end of the bullish cycle in 2026.