Неудавшиеся ставки на биткоин: почти $22 миллиарда опционов под угрозой сгорания Translation: Failed bets on Bitcoin: nearly $22 billion in options at risk of burning out

As the year-end expiration of $28.5 billion contracts approaches on the Deribit exchange, trader optimism is waning. A substantial portion of call options totaling $21.7 billion is at risk of becoming worthless.

Investors had bet on Bitcoin maintaining its value above $100,000, but the performance in November did not meet expectations. According to the platform, only 6% of open positions have strike prices of $92,000 or lower—most bets were too far removed from the current price levels.

There is also a high concentration of options within the $100,000 to $125,000 range.

The maximum «pain point» sits at $95,000—the level at which holders would incur the greatest losses.

Trader sentiment is being bolstered by expectations of further easing in U.S. macroeconomic policy. Over the past week, they have increased open interest in call options with strike prices between $90,000 and $120,000, set to expire by the end of the year.

Bear positions are also vulnerable. The strikes for a significant number of put options are focused between $75,000 and $86,000. If Bitcoin remains above $88,000 by the expiration date, over half of these contracts, valued at $7.7 billion, will become worthless.

While the price remains below $94,000, the advantage lies with sellers. At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $87,800.

On December 26, options contracts for the second-largest cryptocurrency, worth $3.7 billion, will also expire. There are twice as many bullish bets as there are bearish ones.

Most call options are at risk of losing value—traders are wagering on Ethereum rallying to between $3,500 and $5,000 by the end of the year.

Less than 15% of these bullish bets have been made at a more realistic level of $3,000 or lower. This area also marks the «maximum pain point.»

Meanwhile, bears are anticipating a drop in the asset to a range of $2,000 to $2,500, where a large number of put options are concentrated.

In this case, the balance of power also skews towards sellers—as long as the price of Ethereum remains below $3,200. At the time of writing, the coin is trading around $2,900.

It is worth noting that analysts from Wintermute have highlighted the concentration of capital in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.