Estonian Intelligence Chief Assures No Imminent Russian Threat to NATO Amid Rising Tensions

There are no signs that President Vladimir Putin intends to launch an assault on the Baltic states or NATO, despite increasing alarms raised by European officials about the potential for a direct confrontation between the West and Russia in the coming years, stated the head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence agency on Monday.

“We have observed that, in response to our measures, Russia has modified its actions following various incidents in the region,” said Kaupo Rosin, Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, in an interview with public broadcaster ERR. “Up to this point, it remains evident that Russia acknowledges NATO’s presence and is making efforts to circumvent any overt conflict.”

As a former Soviet republic with a historically tense relationship with Moscow, Estonia has been proactive in addressing Russian security threats and has offered strong support to Ukraine since Putin initiated the large-scale invasion in February 2022.

Rosin noted that NATO’s unified responses to Russian violations of airspace and suspected sabotage—such as damage to underwater cables in the Baltic Sea—have compelled Moscow to exercise greater caution, resulting in a noticeable reduction of such incidents recently.

“This does not eliminate the possibility of future occurrences, as military operations are still prevalent and the conflict in Ukraine continues,” the intelligence chief commented. “In theory, such situations could still arise, but presently we do not observe any signs indicating that Russia intends to escalate the situation.”

Rosin’s comments sharply contrast with dire predictions from European officials suggesting that Putin might be contemplating a direct military engagement with the West if Russia triumphs in its conflict with Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte mentioned earlier this month that the military alliance must be ready for a potential Russian strike within the next five years, implying that a future NATO-Russia conflict might mirror the scale of World War II.

“The forces of oppression are advancing again,” Rutte declared during a speech in Berlin. “We could be Russia’s next target.”

Other officials have proposed shorter timelines. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius indicated that hostilities could erupt within a few years, while the head of Britain’s MI6 recently stated that the West is already navigating a “space between peace and war” with Russia.

Putin has dismissed these warnings as overblown, asserting that Russia has no desire for a direct military confrontation with NATO. Nonetheless, he has stated that Russia is prepared “at this moment” to engage in warfare with Europe if compelled.

Some analysts have also questioned whether Russia is genuinely ready or able to confront NATO, suggesting that the alarming rhetoric may be aimed at justifying increased military spending as U.S. President Donald Trump urges NATO members to boost their defense budgets.

In the ERR interview, Rosin criticized the prevalent use of the term “hybrid attacks” to describe alleged Russian operations in Europe, such as acts of sabotage, cyberattacks, and drone incidents near airports.

“We should accurately label these activities. If it’s sabotage, we should call it sabotage. If it’s a cyberattack, it should be recognized as such,” the intelligence chief emphasized. “The term ‘hybrid’ tends to dilute the reality and creates an overly benign impression of what’s truly occurring.”

While downplaying the immediacy of a military conflict, Rosin acknowledged that Russia aims to impede Europe’s rearmament efforts. He posited that the Kremlin is trying to convince Western audiences that Russia does not pose a threat, even suggesting that Moscow could formalize a policy of non-aggression toward Europe in its legislation.

“Conversely, Russia clearly values connection with certain political factions or segments of the population to propagate the notion that an arms race is futile—claiming it diverts resources from other crucial areas like social welfare and ultimately harms Europe itself,” he remarked.

Rosin cautioned that although Russia may not be planning an attack at this time, circumstances could evolve. He stressed that maintaining effective deterrence, including ongoing support for Ukraine, is essential.

“To achieve this, we must invest in our defense—referring to Estonia, the European Union, and NATO. Preserving the current situation requires considerable effort,” he concluded.