Cantor Fitzgerald: В криптозиму закладываются основы институционального роста Translation: Cantor Fitzgerald: Foundations for Institutional Growth are Being Laid in the Crypto Winter

The digital asset market seems to be entering the early phase of an extended downturn. However, according to Brett Knoblauch, an analyst at investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald, this phase will merely serve as a prelude to a more stable and institutional stage of industry development.

He notes that the segment is in the initial stage of a «winter,» following the historical four-year cycle of Bitcoin. Approximately 85 days have passed since the peak price, and downward pressure on quotes may persist for months. There’s a possibility of testing the breakeven level for Strategy around $75,000.

This current decline is distinct from previous ones due to the absence of mass liquidations and structural disruptions. The contours of the market are now shaped not by retail traders but by institutional players. Knoblauch pointed out a growing gap between token prices and actual infrastructure development, especially in the DeFi and Real World Assets (RWA) sectors.

The volume of tokenized real-world assets has tripled over the past year, reaching $18.5 billion. Cantor Fitzgerald predicts that this figure will surpass $50 billion by 2026 as banks increasingly adopt on-chain settlements. Decentralized exchanges, particularly in the perpetual futures segment, are expected to continue capturing market share from centralized platforms, even amid an overall decline in trading volumes.

The analyst also highlighted the rising popularity of prediction markets. The betting volume in the sports segment has exceeded $5.9 billion. Notable players like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini have entered this niche, offering more transparent mechanisms than traditional bookmakers.

The primary risk remains the value of the leading cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s price is only 17% above Strategy’s average acquisition cost. A drop below this level could alarm market participants, although Knoblauch doubts that the company will start liquidating assets.

In the expert’s view, the upcoming year is unlikely to witness explosive growth but will lay the groundwork for the long-term adoption of technologies.

Several experts believe that the familiar four-year cycle of the original cryptocurrency has been disrupted. They attribute this to the launch of spot ETFs, easing regulations in the U.S., a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, and an increase in global liquidity.

Nik Rak, director of LVRG Research, stated that the historical periodicity began to deteriorate in 2025. Constant demand from funds and corporations has mitigated volatility and prevented the deep crashes typical of previous years. The analyst anticipates consolidation but predicts continued growth in 2026.

A similar stance is held by Grayscale and Standard Chartered. The former expects a new historical high in the first half of 2026, while the latter regards the cycle theory as «invalid» and sets a Bitcoin target of $150,000.

Marcus Thielen, head of 10x Research, believes that digital gold entered a bear market as early as late October 2025, becoming the first risk asset to respond to the economic slowdown.

PlanB, an analyst, pointed out the psychological factor: sales are driven by «traumatized by 2021» market veterans who habitually expect a downturn two years after a halving event.

Expert Alex Veisi added that the cycle is not broken but elongated: the absence of an altseason and euphoria is “causing boredom,” but it does not signify the end of growth.

As a reminder, in December, traders assessed the probability of a «crypto winter» at 7%. Later, analysts from CryptoQuant warned about the onset of a bearish market, predicting a bottom at the $56,000 level.