JPMorgan предсказывает потенциальный рост биткоина до $170 000, несмотря на текущие колебания рынка Translation: JPMorgan predicts potential Bitcoin growth to $170,000 despite current market fluctuations

Novogratz believes that the market has not yet peaked.

As leverage normalizes and volatility remains relatively low compared to gold, the leading cryptocurrency could rise to $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months. This perspective was shared by analysts at JPMorgan, as reported by The Block.

They observed a nearly 20% correction in the crypto market from recent highs. The most significant drop occurred on the night of October 10-11, amidst record liquidations of perpetual contracts. This was followed by less extensive position closures on November 3.

Experts noted that the November liquidations coincided with a new blow to investor confidence — the hack of the DeFi protocol Balancer for $128 million. This incident served as a reminder of the risks associated with decentralized projects.

Despite a succession of sell-offs, analysts emphasized that the phase of deleveraging is «mostly complete.» The ratio of open interest in perpetual Bitcoin futures to the asset’s market capitalization has dropped from above-average levels to historical norms.

A similar trend is seen in the Ethereum market, although the reduction in debt burden was less pronounced there.

“At the CME, we observe the opposite situation: liquidations on Ethereum futures were higher than on Bitcoin,” JPMorgan added.

Experts also stated that the outflows from crypto ETFs observed in recent weeks were minor compared to inflows in the weeks ending on October 3 and 10.

“We believe that perpetual contracts are currently the most crucial metric to monitor. The stabilization of this indicator suggests that deleveraging is likely behind us,” the experts concluded.

JPMorgan analysts argue that increasing volatility in gold has made the flagship cryptocurrency more attractive in terms of risk-return ratio.

The volatility ratio of Bitcoin to the primary precious metal has fallen below 2, indicating that the leading cryptocurrency requires approximately 1.8 times more risk capital than gold.

Based on this ratio, the experts calculated that to align with private investment volumes in precious metals, Bitcoin’s market capitalization (around $2.1 trillion) would need to increase by 67%.

“This implies a theoretical price for the asset of approximately $170,000,” they noted.

The current price of the coin is about $69,000 lower than its adjusted value relative to gold. Experts believe this «mechanical calculation suggests significant growth potential for the asset over the next 6 to 12 months.»

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $101,000, with a 2% price drop over the last day.

Galaxy Digital’s founder Mike Novogratz mentioned that the «lackluster dynamics» of the crypto market are linked to portfolio rebalancing among holders. In his opinion, this repositioning is beneficial in the medium and long term.

In the short term, however, this situation may negatively impact prices.

The expert is not convinced that digital assets have reached the peak of the cycle. Novogratz expects that a change in the head of the Federal Reserve will lead to a more lenient regulatory stance, which will provide sufficient momentum for the next growth phase.

CryptoQuant analyst known as MAC_D recorded accelerated accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders — addresses that have never shown outflows. According to him, this investor category absorbs selling pressure.

The realized price for this group continues to rise and is currently around $78,520. MAC_D believes that a true «crypto winter» will only occur if this level is breached.

“Institutions, funds, and whales continue to accumulate assets even at relatively high price levels and absorb short-term pressure,” the expert noted.

The market is currently entering a phase of liquidity expansion, supported by expectations of further key rate cuts, the end of quantitative tightening, and the growth of the dollar money supply M2.

“Given these conditions, the current cycle is more likely to demonstrate a rapid recovery of price momentum, unlike the previous protracted downturns,” concluded the analyst.

At the time of writing, market participants assess the likelihood of further easing of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy at nearly 65%.

It is worth noting that the MVRV indicator, currently at its lowest level since April (1.8), has indicated a local bottom for Bitcoin around $100,000.