Putins Oreshnik Missile Strike: A Tactic to Instill Fear in Western Allies

Russia’s missile strike with the Oreshnik near the EU border in Ukraine is perceived as a tactic to instill fear in Kyiv’s Western allies and expresses Vladimir Putin’s dissatisfaction with recent foreign policy misfortunes, such as developments in Venezuela, analysts noted on Friday.

Shortly after European and U.S. diplomats presented a post-conflict peacekeeping proposal for Ukraine, Russia targeted an infrastructure facility in Lviv, using the Oreshnik missile—capable of carrying nuclear warheads and classified as an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM)—on the night between Thursday and Friday.

This incident is believed to be only the second known operational use of this missile.

Although Moscow claims the attack was a reaction to a supposed drone strike on a residence of Putin’s back in December, nearly four years after the onset of the Ukraine invasion, experts believe the action was intended to convey a forceful message to Western leaders and instill anxiety in European citizens.

Cyrille Bret, a Russia specialist at the Montaigne Institute in Paris, told AFP, «Putin is leveraging this to communicate with the West; he could certainly achieve similar operational outcomes without deploying this missile.»

He further stated, «As Europeans work on bolstering their air defense capabilities, this serves as a reminder of their vulnerabilities.»

The Kremlin has heralded the Oreshnik as a «cutting-edge» missile, capable of traveling at hypersonic speeds, reaching targets across Europe, and eluding interception.

In a discussion on Friday, leaders of the United Kingdom, France, and Germany deemed Russia’s missile usage as «escalatory and unacceptable,» with a spokesperson from the U.K. government making the statement.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer remarked that Russia was employing «fabricated allegations to justify its actions,» the spokesperson reported, while Ukraine has denied any attempts to strike Putin’s residence.

Andriy Sadovy, the mayor of Lviv, expressed on Facebook that the attack represents «a new level of threat—not only for Ukraine but also for European security.»

The Oreshnik missile, named after the Russian word for hazel, was reportedly first used in an attack on the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro in 2024.

Observers noted the significance of the missile striking a target approximately 70 kilometers (40 miles) from the EU border.

Etienne Marcuz, an associate fellow at France’s Foundation for Strategic Research, commented on X, «This location is much nearer to EU borders,» suggesting that the strike should be interpreted as a message to European nations while arguing it may have more psychological impact than operational effectiveness.

Some analysts perceived the missile strike as an effort by Putin to reaffirm his authority following various setbacks, such as the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, the seizure of a Russian-flagged ship in the North Atlantic, and recent protests in Iran that challenged the Moscow-aligned regime.

Retired Major General and Ukraine conflict analyst Mick Ryan claimed, «It is a psychological tool—a component of Putin’s cognitive warfare against Ukraine and the West—rather than merely a weapon for mass destruction.» He added that employing the Oreshnik reflects «the actions of a fearful and anxious leader rather than one who is confident and expects victory.»

He further emphasized that this incident does not conceal the reality that Russia lacks the capability «to influence events or respond to military situations concerning allies beyond its borders.»

Timothy Ash, an economist specializing in emerging markets with a focus on Russia, echoed this sentiment, highlighting the relatively minimal impact of the strike on the ground.

«The Oreshnik is undoubtedly effective but also comes at a high cost, making its use in Ukraine illogical based on a cost-benefit analysis,» he noted.

Ash added that deploying the Oreshnik seemed more like a public relations stunt, perhaps intended to signal to the Trump administration about Russia’s broader discontent with the global situation.

While Russia claims the Oreshnik is hypersonic, Western defense analysts argue that it is not a groundbreaking weapon.

Marcuz stated, «It is likely NOT a hypersonic missile,» pointing out that Europe possesses means to intercept IRBMs.

He also commented on the potential challenges posed by the Oreshnik’s multiple warheads, depending on their release timing.

In December, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, an ally of Putin, mentioned that the weapon had been stationed in Belarus, which shares a border with NATO’s eastern flank.