Regions in Transition: Expert Insights on Russias Future in 2026

Hello and welcome to «Regions Calling» by The Moscow Times, a newsletter devoted to highlighting Russia’s regions and ethnic republics.

The period from Orthodox Christmas on January 7 to Epiphany on January 19 signifies the peak of Russia’s 12 Days of Christmas festivities, referred to in Russian as sviatki.

In Slavic culture, sviatkiare are linked to folk traditions and divination, as individuals seek insights into what the forthcoming year might bring.

In the spirit of the season, our inaugural newsletter for 2026 will focus on future perspectives. We consulted five experts who shared their insights on upcoming developments in Russia’s regions and ethnic republics, as well as their thoughts on potential shifts from the current wartime status quo.

Here’s what they had to say.

The following interviews have been condensed for clarity and brevity.

Andras Toth-Czifra, a scholar specializing in Russia’s domestic politics and political economy

I will be monitoring liquidity issues as they emerge in regional and local budgets, the problems they generate or intensify, and the financial and political flexibility governors are permitted to address these challenges.

Most regions are entering 2026 with tight budgets and diminished fiscal reserves, yet the pressure on social spending is expected to remain significant. We are already observing the effects in places like Kemerovo and Irkutsk. Regions heavily reliant on declining sectors may also experience similar financial strains in 2026.

Additionally, I will keep a close eye on the municipal administration reform, which has sparked opposition not just among the public but also among lower-tier elites. This could influence regional political stability as the 2026 Duma elections approach.

Moreover, the reform has reduced the number of lower administrative positions available for returning war veterans, perceived by the Kremlin as ‘safe’ placements, which may further increase tensions.

Iliuza Mukhamedianova, a social researcher from Bashkortostan

I intend to focus on grassroots movements within the republics rather than formal political frameworks.

Local demonstrations, cultural projects, educational initiatives, and subtle forms of activism often go unnoticed by mainstream media, yet they provide significant insight into societal conditions. In Bashkortostan, a key example is the Baymak protests.

Conflicts surrounding environmental issues tied to resource extraction and land use are also noteworthy, particularly within rural and Indigenous populations. These situations often highlight intersections of identity, economic disparity, and political resistance.

I do not anticipate swift or radical improvements at the institutional level of political life in the ethnic republics. Instead, I foresee a deterioration of the existing circumstances, with increased repression and tighter governmental oversight.

Nonetheless, individuals in Russia’s republics will likely forge new grassroots networks and cultivate fresh solidarity actions. These changes may lay the groundwork for future transformations within the country.

Harold Chambers, an expert on nationalism, conflict, and security in the North Caucasus

I will be closely monitoring socioeconomic pressures, such as failures in infrastructure, inflation, and unemployment, as well as threats posed by extremist factions like the Islamic State and Maniac Murder Cult, alongside instances of both pacifistic and violent resistance.

Key events I will be watching include the official inauguration of the new Putin neighborhood in Grozny and the parliamentary elections in Dagestan, as well as the Duma elections. 2026 will also mark five years since the elimination of Aslan Byutukayev, the alleged leader of the Islamic State in Chechnya, which may lead to renewed activities from insurgents or authorities.

There are two anticipated factors that could heighten instability in the North Caucasus in 2026.

Firstly, the repercussions of the invasion of Ukraine continue to resonate. This encompasses not only the social ramifications of mobilization efforts but also increased actions from Ukraine-aligned groups within the region and ongoing drone strikes.

Secondly, we may witness an escalation of the power struggle in Chechnya. As Ramzan Kadyrov further embeds his son Adam into the governance of the republic, anti-Kadyrov federal officials are likely to seek methods to undermine or bypass his plans for succession.

Lana Pylaeva, a human rights advocate and analyst from Komi

In the past year, the Russian government has shown a heightened interest in Indigenous communities. Vladimir Putin even declared 2026 the Year of Unity among the Peoples of Russia and introduced two new holidays.

Russia increasingly aims to utilize Indigenous populations to further its geopolitical objectives, such as making yet another business deal with Trump and enhancing its image in the Global South as a decolonial alternative to Western powers. At the same time, Indigenous activists have faced renewed crackdowns, evidenced by a wave of arrests in December.

My primary focus will be on developments concerning the rights of Indigenous peoples. I expect an increase in repression and a growing restriction on expressions of Indigenous identity to only those government-sanctioned festivities.

I will also monitor the various infrastructure projects that Russia is aggressively pursuing in the Arctic, including a significant open-air nature reserve and a year-round resort in the Northern Urals.

In my home republic of Komi, I will keep an eye on the potential gold mining operations at the Chudnoe deposit, as well as the extensive plans to construct a water pipeline from the Pechora and Northern Dvina rivers to the occupied Donbas, among other initiatives.

Of course, I will continue to follow local activism in Komi. It brings me joy to see that there are still individuals committed to various forms of struggle.

Dr. Maria Ochir-Goryaeva, an Oirat (Kalmyk) historian and human rights advocate

The same issues that concerned me in 2025 will remain at the forefront of my attention in 2026.

With great worry, I witnessed the passage of new laws diminishing the sovereignty of Russia’s republics. In educational settings, the gradual phasing out of Indigenous languages and literature is taking place.

The ongoing militarization of both school and preschool education is deteriorating. As fathers and older brothers perish in a war abroad, the youth are being prepared for a similar destiny.

However, I also observe encouraging grassroots initiatives striving to revive national identity, culture, and language amid these struggles.

The world ushered in 2026 with an inner readiness for drastic changes: either a peace agreement ending this horrific war or an escalation leading to a potential third world war. Both scenarios seem equally plausible.

We are entering a period that calls for resilient individuals. Regardless of how global circumstances evolve, every Kalmyk and Oirat must do everything in their power to safeguard our republic and our identity as a people. Our future now depends on ordinary citizens, as those in power seem unconcerned about these issues.