«Standard Chartered: Биткоин, возможно, больше никогда не увидит нулевых отметок ниже $100,000» English translation: Standard Chartered: Bitcoin May Never See Zero Levels Below $100,000 Again

The first cryptocurrency may never drop below $100,000 again, according to Jeffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, as reported by The Block.

For this to happen, positive macroeconomic and geopolitical developments must continue.

Kendrick noted that «market fear has turned into hope.» This change is attributed to improvements in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. The easing of tensions has positively impacted risk markets, including cryptocurrencies.

He is monitoring the market capitalization ratio of Bitcoin to gold and anticipates that surpassing the threshold of 30 will signal the end of fear in the market.

Another crucial indicator of strength is the influx of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs. The analyst pointed out that last week, more than $2 billion was withdrawn from gold funds. If at least half of that amount flows into Bitcoin-based instruments, it would be a strong indicator of improving sentiment.

Kendrick considers Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high as definitive proof of a positive trend, arguing that this would disprove the theory linking price peaks to halving cycles.

He also highlighted the imminent meeting of the FOMC, which is expected to result in a 25 basis point rate cut—a factor Kendrick views as beneficial for Bitcoin.

Moreover, this week, technology giants and cryptocurrency companies like Strategy and Coinbase will report their earnings.

*»If this week goes well, Bitcoin may NEVER fall below $100,000 again,»* Kendrick concluded.

The digital asset has surpassed the $112,000 and $113,000 marks, bringing around 7 million BTC owned by short-term investors back into profitability. This was noted by an analyst known as Crazzyblockk.

The asset has solidified above three key cost levels for various investor groups:

According to the analyst, these levels reflect the average purchase price for the most active market participants. Holding above these marks often indicates a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish.

Of the nearly 7 million BTC that regained profitability, 5.1 million coins belong to investors with a holding period of less than six months. An additional 1.8 million BTC are held by those who entered the market in the past month.

Crazzyblockk emphasized that unrealized profits serve as a «behavioral driver.» When short-term holders see their positions rise, their confidence increases. This motivates them to hold their assets longer or to invest more, signaling market strength.

The expert concluded that returning to these cost levels represents a psychological shift toward optimism. Continued trading above these levels would reaffirm market participant confidence and could lay the groundwork for the next growth phase. Conversely, a drop below these average prices would indicate weakness and indecisiveness.

At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading at around $113,900, with a 1.6% decline over the past day.

After the recent market downturn, large funds began aggressively purchasing put options as a hedge against further declines, according to analysts from Deribit.

The main strategy involved buying options to protect against a price drop in the $100,000 to $107,000 range. At the same time, one large player, referred to by analysts as the Overwrite Fund, sold contracts anticipating price increases. Early investors trading Bitcoin in the spot market also contributed to the market pressure.

Experts noted an increase in the «volatility skew» indicator, suggesting that demand for put options currently exceeds that for call contracts. This is attributed not only to the purchase of insurance against declines but also to active call option sales by the Overwrite Fund. Market participants are also shifting their bets on future price rises from October to November, targeting higher price points of $114,000 and $120,000.

Overall, the picture appears as follows: funds are acting to prevent price growth above $110,000 to $120,000 while simultaneously hedging against falls below $100,000 to $110,000.

Analysts also recorded a significant exit of investors from positions aimed at Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by December.

However, some optimists remain in the market: several funds took advantage of the situation to purchase November contracts that would yield profits if the price rises to $125,000 to $135,000.

Analysts believe that market volatility is gradually decreasing, but demand for protective instruments remains high. Concerns arise from sales by major Bitcoin holders and low liquidity in the altcoin market. On the other hand, the transparency of exchanges allows large funds to buy the dips below the $106,000 to $107,000 levels.

It’s noteworthy that in October, Kendrick predicted Bitcoin would crash below $100,000.